NESG-Stanbic IBTC Enterprise Confidence Monitor Blended Indicators: Robust Sectoral Development Versus Structural Hurdles

In August 2025, companies in Nigeria sustained a optimistic trajectory, with the index staying within the enlargement zone because the begin of the yr. The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Enterprise Confidence Monitor reported a slight rise within the Present Enterprise Index to 107.3 factors, up from 105.4 factors in July 2025. This restoration was pushed by stronger efficiency in expertise, finance, manufacturing, vitality, and logistics, supported by focused investments and ongoing reforms. Nevertheless, these positive aspects had been tempered by structural bottlenecks affecting operational effectivity and enterprise profitability. Aside from the contraction in Agriculture, the sectoral overview confirmed enhancements throughout industries and broader financial actions.

Commerce posted the strongest rebound after the earlier month’s decline. In the meantime, Manufacturing (106.2), Non-manufacturing (116.2), Commerce (114.1), and Companies (103.7) all superior in August in comparison with July 2025. Conversely, Agriculture slipped into contraction territory, recording 95.6 index factors. Key sub-indices of the BCM, together with funding, exports, entry to credit score, and costs, registered decrease values relative to July 2025. The price of doing enterprise additionally rose in August, reversing the marginal reduction of the earlier month. Moreover, enter costs continued to worsen in the course of the interval. Main constraints limiting development and efficiency in August 2025 had been restricted financing entry, unclear financial insurance policies, unreliable electrical energy provide, excessive lease and rental prices, and chronic insecurity.

Remark from Stanbic IBTC

Enterprise situations in Nigeria improved in August relative to July as development seen throughout the Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, Companies, and Commerce sectors had been sufficient to neutralize the contraction witnessed by the Agricultural sector within the month. Inside Agriculture, crop manufacturing recorded probably the most important decline, doubtless seasonal in nature, as August is the lean season based mostly on Nigeria’s agricultural calendar, forward of the principle harvest season beginning in September. Therefore, the Agricultural sector output could improve in September and October, doubtless as a consequence of increased output related to the harvest season.

In the meantime, the Manufacturing sector rebounded in August after the contraction witnessed in July, supported by the Meals, Beverage and Tobacco; Textile, Attire and Footwear; Wooden and Wooden Merchandise; and Pulp, Paper and Paper Merchandise sub-sectors. Companies (103.7 factors vs July: 101.9 factors) additionally remained inside the expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month, supported by the continued enchancment in FX liquidity situations, softer worth pressures, and relative stability of the home forex.

Nigeria’s rebased financial system reveals actual GDP growing by 3.13% y/y in Q1:25 – slower than the three.76% y/y revised development in This autumn:24 – and likewise the bottom since Q1:24 when the financial system grew by 2.27% y/y. At 78.6%, relative to 70.0% in This autumn:24, providers contributed probably the most to GDP development in Q1:25, however agriculture shrank to 0.5% in Q1:25, from 19.7% in This autumn:24. Industries in Q1:25 contributed a powerful 20.9%, from 10.4% in This autumn:24, in keeping with our long-held view that industries ought to begin contributing extra to actual GDP development from 2025 amid the structural shift launched into the sector by the operations of Dangote Refinery. General, the Nigerian financial system continues to be on monitor to develop by 3.5% y/y in 2025 from 3.4% y/y development seen in 2024 supported by softer inflation, enchancment in FX liquidity situations, and structural reforms.