NESG-Stanbic IBTC Enterprise Confidence Monitor: One Yr On, Nigeria’s Enterprise Atmosphere Reveals Indicators of Enchancment

In September 2025, companies in Nigeria sustained a constructive trajectory, with the Present Enterprise Efficiency remaining within the enlargement area since December 2024. The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Enterprise Confidence Monitor (BCM) reported a marginal rise to 107.9 factors, up from 107.3 in August 2025. This enchancment displays a mix of sectoral dynamics, notably a rebound in Agriculture, supported by the harvest season, and regular exercise within the Providers sector.

A sectoral overview confirmed that each one 5 broader financial actions stayed within the enlargement zone. Agriculture posted the strongest restoration, rising sharply to 107.3 from a contractionary
95.6 in August, whereas Non-manufacturing (114.5), Commerce (107.6), and Manufacturing (102.5) all expanded, albeit at a slower tempo in comparison with August.

Key BCM sub-indices, similar to funding, exports, entry to credit score, and costs, registered marginal positive aspects relative to August 2025, pointing to enhancing sentiment in capital formation and exterior commerce. Importantly, latest enhancements in value of doing enterprise and enter costs counsel a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures on corporations. Nonetheless, this constructive pattern stays fragile, as financing constraints, erratic electrical energy provide, excessive industrial property prices, unclear coverage indicators, and protracted insecurity proceed to undermine enterprise confidence and funding urge for food.

Remark from Stanbic IBTC

The present enterprise efficiency of Nigerian companies improved barely in September relative to August, buoyed by each the Agriculture sector and Providers, each of which neutralised the modest exercise softening in Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, and Commerce sectors. A breakdown of the elements of the present enterprise efficiency exhibits an enchancment within the common enterprise state of affairs, a better degree of demand, improved employment circumstances and higher entry to credit score relative to the prior month. Apart from, the price of doing enterprise has declined for the third consecutive month, whereas the worth index has remained beneath the 100 index factors psychological threshold since November 2024, implying underlying value pressures as moderating. This isn’t shocking as gasoline value and change fee pressures, which negatively impacted costs in 2024, have seen restricted value actions to date in 2025. Notably, the change fee appreciated by 5.5% year-to-date (as of 2nd October) relative to 40.9% depreciation in 2024 and gasoline value declined by 13.8% in 7m:25 relative to 77.0% value improve in 2024.

We estimate that the oil and non-oil sectors might have grown by 14.3% y/y and 4.4% y/y, respectively, translating into general GDP progress of 4.5% y/y in Q3:25. We now elevate our 2025 progress forecast to 4.0% y/y, from 3.5% y/y, after totally accounting for the impression of GDP rebasing, and after surprisingly good Q2:25 GDP progress. Going into 2026, the non-oil sector’s progress ought to stay sturdy amid a possible discount in rates of interest and low inflation, each of which ought to help combination demand and personal funding. Additional, a possible much less change fee volatility in 2025 and 2026 primarily based on our present estimates ought to help progress throughout commerce, manufacturing, actual property, and building. Other than that, the forward-linkage impression of Dangote Refinery ought to profit manufacturing progress within the medium time period. The IMF expects the Dangote Refinery to extend non-oil GDP progress by c.1.5% in 2026. Oil refining has already grown for a 3rd consecutive quarter, to fifteen.78% y/y in Q2:25, from 11.51% y/y in Q1:25, though its contribution to the manufacturing sector stays insignificant, at 0.1%.”