Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI: Output development hits six-month excessive in October

October information pointed to improved development momentum within the Nigerian personal sector, with each output and new orders growing at sharper charges than in September. In flip, corporations took on additional employees and expanded their buying exercise. The tempo of enter price inflation remained subdued relative to the image over latest years, whereas output costs elevated on the second-slowest tempo for five-and a-half years. The headline determine derived from the survey is the Stanbic IBTC Buying Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). Readings above 50.0 sign an enchancment in enterprise circumstances on the earlier month, whereas readings under 50.0 present a deterioration.

Muyiwa Oni, Head of Fairness Analysis West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank commented: “Enterprise exercise began the final quarter of 2025 on a robust word, with the headline PMI printing larger at 54.0 factors in October in comparison with 53.4 factors in September. This was on account of upper output and new orders development. Notably, continued softening of worth pressures and launch of latest merchandise by corporations helped to drive larger new orders (56.3 factors vs September: 55.4 factors) and this in flip, supported output (57.7 factors vs September: 56.1 factors) development to its highest stage since April. Output elevated throughout all of the 4 sectors coated by the survey, led by manufacturing. Elsewhere, enter prices elevated in October however have been nonetheless a lot weaker than ranges seen in 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, the alternative was true for output costs, which rose on the second slowest tempo in five-and-a-half years, simply Headline inflation softened to 18.02% y/y in September, and we count on worth moderation in the direction of 15.84% – 16.22% y/y in October and 14.25% – 14.62% y/y in November.

It’s because we see meals costs moderating additional within the coming months in keeping with the continuing primary harvest season which is predicted to make sure meals costs stay at their seasonal low stage till December, when gradual depletion of family shares will start. Concurrently, non-food inflation must be pressured in October amid larger gasoline costs relative to September, understandably as a result of provide constraints and manufacturing glitches on the Dangote refinery which contributes 30.0% – 40.0% of home petrol provides. Nonetheless, the lingering native forex stability and appreciation ought to assist present some succour to non-food inflation within the close to time period. Decrease inflation, stabilizing alternate price, and anticipation of additional price cuts forward ought to help enchancment in actual sector exercise over the medium time period. Accordingly, we see the Nigerian financial system rising by 4.0% in 2025. Each Manufacturing and Providers are more likely to see larger development in 2025 in comparison with 2024 ranges, primarily based on the outcomes from the PMI surveys to this point this yr.”

The headline PMI rose to 54.0 in October from 53.4 in September, signalling a stable month-to-month enchancment within the well being of the personal sector and one which was extra pronounced than within the earlier survey interval. Enterprise circumstances have now strengthened in 11 consecutive months. Output development hit a six-month excessive in October, with panellists highlighting the optimistic impression of rising new orders and the introduction of latest merchandise. Enterprise exercise elevated throughout all 4 broad sectors, with development quickest in manufacturing. The launch of latest merchandise additionally helped to drive up buyer numbers in October, thereby feeding by means of to rising new orders.

A latest softening of inflationary pressures additionally reportedly helped to spice up demand. Though corporations continued to extend their promoting costs at a marked tempo in response to larger enter prices, the newest rise in expenses was the second-slowest for five-and-a half years, faster solely than that seen in August. The speed of enter price inflation ticked larger, nonetheless, amid sooner will increase in each buy costs and employees prices. That stated, the rise in enter costs was nonetheless muted in comparison with these seen in 2023 and 2024. Rising new orders inspired companies to tackle additional employees in October, the fifth month working by which this has been the case. The speed of job creation was solely modest, nonetheless, and softer than seen in September.

Increased employment helped companies to maintain on prime of workloads, however energy outages and fee delays from purchasers led to build-ups in backlogs elsewhere. On stability, excellent enterprise was broadly unchanged in October. Each buying exercise and shares of inputs elevated as corporations responded to larger new orders and the prospect of additional expansions within the months forward. In the meantime, suppliers’ supply instances continued to shorten. Though methods round advertising and marketing and exporting supported confidence within the year-ahead outlook for enterprise exercise, sentiment dropped for the fourth month working in October and was the bottom since Might. Round 46% of respondents predicted an increase in output over the following 12 months.