CBN’s 303rd MPC Assembly: A Technocratic Victory, an Financial Setback, and a Missed Alternative on Nigeria’s Actual Disaster

BY BLAISE UDUNZE

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 303rd Financial Coverage Committee (MPC) assembly arrived at a time of unprecedented stress inside the Nigerian economic system. The nation has not confronted a harder convergence of challenges for greater than a decade within the space of crushing meals inflation, unrelenting insecurity, slowing development, weak buying energy, a fragile change price, and quickly eroding enterprise confidence, as these are the present realities.

But, towards this troubling backdrop, the MPC selected to retain the Financial Coverage Price (MPR) at 27 %, stored the Money Reserve Ratio (CRR) at a record-high 45 %, held the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 %, and adjusted the uneven hall, making it extra reflective of technocratic cautions than financial realities

With the tense ambiance, boldness, contextual sensitivity, and human-centric policymaking are required to douse the challenges. As a substitute, what Nigeria acquired was one other spherical of technocratic orthodoxy, at a time when orthodoxy has clearly failed.

Why This MPC Assembly Issues Extra Than Any in Latest Reminiscence

The significance of the 303rd MPC assembly can’t be overstated. It occurred at a time when:

–       Nigeria’s meals inflation stays structurally excessive, pushed primarily by insecurity, not extra liquidity.

–       Banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism have made farming a high-risk exercise throughout the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and more and more the South, which has created an setting the place worry, uncertainty, and instability have turn into the every day actuality for hundreds of thousands of Nigerians.

–       Development has slowed, reflecting a tightening credit score setting and collapsing client demand, whereas households spend 70-80 % of earnings on meals, based on trade surveys.

–       Personal-sector credit score is shrinking, whereas authorities borrowing is increasing.

–       The naira, although stabilising, stays susceptible.

Given these realities, the MPC was anticipated to sign a shift, nevertheless modest, towards a extra growth-supportive stance. As a substitute, it doubled down on tight coverage.

Many analysts interpret this as an indication that the CBN is extra dedicated to defending the naira and preserving the looks of stability than responding to the lived experiences of residents and companies.

The CBN’s Insecurity Blind Spot: Meals Costs Can not Fall When Farmers Are Working for Their Lives

One of many greatest ironies in Nigeria at this time is the insistence by some policymakers that meals costs are “declining” or that inflation is “moderating,” at the same time as insecurity stays the most important structural menace to cost stability.

This contradiction reveals the central stress of Nigeria’s present financial second; the macro indicators are enhancing, however the actual economic system, particularly the meals system, is collapsing underneath insecurity.

Not too long ago, the United Nations World Meals Programme (WFP) issued a stark warning that 35 million Nigerians are projected to face extreme meals insecurity by the 2026 lean season, which is the best quantity ever recorded. Why? As a result of rebel assaults are intensifying. Farmers are being killed or kidnapped. Whole communities are paying “harvest taxes” to armed teams.

At this time, we witness farmers abandoning hundreds of hectares of farmland. Irrigation techniques, seeds, and inputs are inaccessible in battle zones. This creates a vicious cycle as:

–       insecurity reduces agricultural manufacturing,

–       Lowered manufacturing pushes meals costs up,

–       Rising meals costs gas inflation,

–       inflation erodes buying energy,

–       poverty deepens,

–       insecurity worsens.

But the MPC communique didn’t point out this core driver of inflation in any significant means.

As a substitute, it continued to border inflation as a financial downside; one thing rates of interest alone can repair. This isn’t solely analytically flawed; it reveals a extra harmful misdiagnosis that can extend Nigeria’s meals disaster.

The Hidden Query: Are Nigeria’s Inflation Numbers Really Dependable?

A quiet however rising debate is rising inside the monetary group about Nigeria’s inflation numbers and macroeconomic figures being massaged.

Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, put it bluntly, “Zero price minimize suggests the CBN MPC is probably not completely assured within the NBS current inflation numbers at 16 %.”

This suspicion just isn’t unfounded. Contemplating the current realities going through the residents, Nigerians are spending extra on meals than at any time within the final two generations. Staple costs resembling rice, yams, garri, and beans are nonetheless excessive in virtually each main market. Transport, lease, gas, and electrical energy prices stay on the excessive facet. Companies report that working bills haven’t declined by any significant margin. But official inflation fell sharply to 16.05 %.

It’s mathematically troublesome for headline inflation to fall considerably when meals inflation, which is essentially the most dominant part, continues to rise on account of insecurity, logistics disruptions, and vitality prices. This mismatch has compelled many economists to ask: what precisely is being measured, and is the methodology nonetheless credible? For households already on the brink, numbers that counsel “enchancment” really feel not solely inaccurate however insulting.

The Disconnect Between Governance and Lived Expertise

That is the place Nigeria’s financial narrative collapses, because the statistics could counsel progress, however households really feel worse off than ever. Because of this rising segments of society describe authorities optimism as tone-deaf.

A rustic can’t be “on the proper path” when its residents can’t afford rice, can’t gas their turbines, can’t pay transport fares, and can’t entry credit score to increase their companies.

This disconnect exposes what many name the technocratic phantasm, which is overly counting on fashions, spreadsheets, and financial tenets in a rustic the place insecurity, not extreme demand, is driving inflation. It displays a divide between governance and actuality, information and starvation, stability and survival.

Tight Financial Coverage: A Victory for Banks, a Defeat for the Actual Economic system

Whereas the CBN insists that its tight stance is crucial for worth stability, analysts warn that the prices have gotten insufferable. Dr. Muda Yusuf argues that even a small price minimize of 25 to 50 foundation factors would have signaled a dedication to development. As a substitute:

–       Lending charges stay between 33 % and 45 %, suffocating SMEs.

–       Credit score to the non-public sector fell from N75.9 trillion to N72.5 trillion in only one month.

–       Authorities borrowing is rising, crowding out real-sector lending.

–       Producers have minimize manufacturing, citing financing situations.

–       Job creation is slowing, particularly in youth-led sectors.

Banks, in the meantime, are reporting stronger margins and better curiosity earnings. The query is now not whether or not tight coverage fights inflation. The query is whether or not Nigeria’s economic system can survive its unwanted effects.

The Naira: Stability Constructed on Fragile Foundations

The CBN’s primary justification for sustaining the excessive MPR is to draw overseas portfolio funding (FPI), assist the naira, and keep away from destabilizing capital outflows. However this stability is fragile. FPIs are non permanent “sizzling cash.” They disappear on the slightest international shock.

Nigeria has suffered the implications of counting on this route in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022. A sustainable naira requires:

–       Extra home manufacturing

–       Increased exports

–       Higher safety

–       Improved vitality provide

–       and a useful agricultural sector.

None of those acquired precedence point out within the MPC deliberations.

The Actual Check of Reform Is in Folks’s Lives, Not in Abuja’s Spreadsheets

Nigeria’s macroeconomic features are being celebrated overseas. However starvation, joblessness, and despair are increasing at dwelling. That is the irony of the present second:

–       Inflation is easing, but starvation is rising.

–       FX reserves are enhancing, but insecurity is deepening.

–       Subsidies are gone, but the fiscal house they had been meant to create is invisible.

–       Reforms have stabilised numbers, however not individuals.

The World Financial institution’s October 2025 report warned that Nigeria’s progress means nothing if human welfare stays in decline. The success of reforms should now be measured not by GDP or FX reserves, however by what number of Nigerians can afford to eat, work, and stay with dignity.

A Missed Alternative, Once more

The 303rd MPC assembly ought to have been a turning level, a recognition that Nigeria’s inflation disaster is rooted in insecurity and provide shocks, not extra liquidity. As a substitute, the committee delivered technical warning, coverage defensiveness, and an over-reliance on rate of interest orthodoxy.

Nigeria wants a financial coverage that understands the place the actual disaster lies, within the deserted farmlands, the unsafe highways, the displaced farming communities, and the markets the place meals costs rise weekly.

With out confronting this, Nigeria will proceed to win macroeconomic battles whereas dropping the conflict for human survival.

The Path Nigeria Should Chart to Finish Insecurity, Meals Inflation, and Financial Stagnation

Nigeria’s 303rd MPC assembly made one factor clear that the nation can’t escape its financial turmoil by way of financial tightening alone. Rates of interest can’t safe farms, rebuild provide chains, or put meals on the desk. What Nigeria wants now could be a decisive, coordinated technique that goes past the slender lens of inflation focusing on.

–       First, safety should turn into the cornerstone of worth stability.

Meals inflation is not going to recede till farmers can return to their lands with out worry. A Nationwide Agro-Safety Process Pressure merging navy models, agro-rangers, police, intelligence businesses, and vetted group guards should safe farmlands and meals corridors. With out security within the agricultural belt, each different coverage turns into beauty.

–       Second, the CBN should undertake a twin mandate: worth stability and development.

Nigeria’s inflexible financial stance is suppressing credit score, killing jobs, and suffocating manufacturing. Decreasing the CRR to a sensible 25-30 % and offering focused single-digit loans to SMEs and producers is crucial for financial revival. Financial coverage should assist development, not stifle it.

–       Third, Nigeria should rebuild belief in its financial information.

Doubts about inflation figures erode confidence. Modernizing NBS data-collection strategies by way of digital analytics, satellite tv for pc instruments, and clear audits is essential. No nation can chart a path out of disaster with unreliable statistics.

–       Fourth, structural reforms should tackle cost-push inflation at its root.

Nigeria’s inflation is pushed by excessive manufacturing prices regardless of poor roads, costly energy, weak logistics, and inefficient transport techniques. Repairing agricultural roads, increasing rail freight, investing in cold-chain infrastructure, and boosting industrial energy provide will scale back prices and unlock productiveness.

–       Fifth, the nation should construct an export-driven economic system.

Secure change charges come from manufacturing, not excessive rates of interest. Tax incentives for exporters, totally useful Particular Financial Zones, and enhancements in customs effectivity will assist Nigeria appeal to steady capital and develop non-oil exports.

–       Sixth, social safety should increase to protect susceptible households.

Focused meals vouchers, transport subsidies, and college feeding packages are essential to cushion households from financial shocks. Reform with out social safety is a recipe for social unrest.

–       Lastly, Nigeria wants a whole-of-government Financial Struggle Room.

Safety businesses, financial ministries, the CBN, the NBS, and the non-public sector should collaborate in actual time to trace inflation drivers, coordinate responses, and stop coverage contradictions. Financial administration should turn into proactive, not reactive.

Stability Should Translate to Human Welfare

The 303rd MPC assembly signaled warning, however what Nigeria wants is route. It wants readability, boldness, and insurance policies rooted within the lived realities of hundreds of thousands. Financial tightening has achieved what it could; the following part requires confronting insecurity, energizing manufacturing, restoring information credibility, and constructing a growth-driven economic system.

Nigeria can’t tighten its means out of this disaster. It should reform, safe, produce, and most significantly, shield its individuals. If not, the nation will proceed to win statistical battles whereas dropping the conflict for human survival.

Blaise, a journalist and PR skilled, writes from Lagos, may be reached by way of: blaise.udunze@gmail.com