Cooking gasoline imports fall to 13% amid rising costs

The Federal Authorities has disclosed that Nigeria’s nationwide Liquefied Petroleum Gasoline (cooking gasoline) consumption reached 52,800 metric tonnes in 2025, with home entrepreneurs supplying 45,800 metric tonnes, whereas imports accounted for simply 7,100 metric tonnes.

Knowledge from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority on Wednesday confirmed that home LPG entrepreneurs had been accountable for about 87 per cent of complete consumption, highlighting the nation’s rising self-reliance in liquefied petroleum gasoline manufacturing. Imported LPG accounted for roughly 13 per cent, a determine that has steadily declined as native manufacturing capability expands.

Regardless of the dominance of home provide, Nigerians are persevering with to grapple with hovering cooking gasoline costs, elevating questions on why the abundance of regionally produced LPG has not translated into aid for households.

Market information point out that the typical worth of a 12.5kg cylinder rose from N17,432 in January 2025 to N20,609 by July, earlier than costs greater than doubled to over N2,000 per kilogram between October and November, relying on location and retail outlet. This surge strained family budgets, notably for low- and middle-income households who depend on LPG as a safer, cleaner various to firewood and kerosene.

Nigeria’s LPG market has traditionally relied closely on imports, however investments in home gasoline processing crops and refineries have shifted the steadiness in favour of native provide. Amenities such because the NLNG Trains 1–6, Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, Gbaran-Ubie, Soku, and Obite gasoline crops now contribute the majority of the nation’s LPG, with utilisation charges starting from 53 per cent to over 100 per cent at some crops, in keeping with NMDPRA information.

Nevertheless, gasoline entrepreneurs be aware that prime transport prices, restricted storage infrastructure, distribution inefficiencies, and import-related pricing pressures proceed to push up the retail worth of LPG, even when home output is powerful, and importers are now not the dominant suppliers.

A breakdown of month-to-month provide figures confirmed that home LPG manufacturing remained the spine of the nation’s cooking gasoline provide in 2025, persistently outpacing imports for many of the yr, in keeping with official information.

In January, complete LPG provide stood at 4,000 metric tonnes, with 3,200 metric tonnes (80 per cent) sourced regionally and 800 metric tonnes (20 per cent) imported. By February, home provide rose to three,800 metric tonnes (95 per cent), whereas imports fell to 200 metric tonnes (5 per cent), marking a 15-percentage-point enhance in home share.

March noticed Nigeria relying completely on home manufacturing, with 3,400 metric tonnes (100 per cent) equipped regionally and no imports, reflecting a 5-percentage-point enhance in home contribution from February.

In April, complete provide climbed to 4,200 metric tonnes, with home provide at 3,800 metric tonnes (90.5 per cent) and imports at 300 metric tonnes (7.1 per cent). Could recorded 4,600 metric tonnes complete, of which 3,800 metric tonnes (82.6 per cent) had been home and 800 metric tonnes (17.4 per cent) imported.

Home manufacturing reached a excessive in June, contributing 4,000 metric tonnes (88.9 per cent) of 4,500 metric tonnes complete, whereas imports accounted for 600 metric tonnes (11.1 per cent). In July, home provide remained 3,800 metric tonnes (95 per cent) out of a complete 4,000 metric tonnes, with imports at 200 metric tonnes (5 per cent), marking a 6.1-percentage-point enhance in home share from June.

August noticed one of many highest month-to-month totals at 5,000 metric tonnes, with 4,400 metric tonnes (88 per cent) home and 700 metric tonnes (14 per cent) imported. In September, complete provide dipped to three,900 metric tonnes, with home manufacturing at 3,700 metric tonnes (94.9 per cent) and imports at 200 metric tonnes (5.1 per cent).

October recorded 4,500 metric tonnes complete, with 4,200 metric tonnes (93.3 per cent) home and 300 metric tonnes (6.7 per cent) imported. November marked a notable shift as home contribution fell to three,300 metric tonnes (66 per cent), whereas imports jumped to 1,600 metric tonnes (32 per cent), reflecting elevated reliance on international provide throughout peak demand.

In December, complete LPG provide hit 5,200 metric tonnes, with home provide at 3,700 metric tonnes (71 per cent) and imports at 1,500 metric tonnes (29 per cent), barely decreasing home share in comparison with November.

Total, home LPG provide persistently accounted for 66–100 per cent of month-to-month complete provide, whereas imports sometimes ranged from 0–32 per cent, filling gaps throughout peak demand or low home output months.

Common every day consumption, nonetheless, lagged at 4,380 metric tonnes, suggesting that availability alone was not the binding constraint. Total, common month-to-month LPG provide stood at about 4,400 metric tonnes, with native producers firmly anchoring the market.

The regulator famous that home producers, together with NLNG, Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, and different gasoline processing crops, equipped about 3,700 metric tonnes per day in December, representing roughly 71 per cent of complete provide, whereas imports contributed the remaining 29 per cent.

Regardless of this, retail costs in December ranged between N1,120 and N1,600 per kilogram, relying on area and logistics prices. Trade analysts level to a disconnect between upstream efficiency and downstream pricing. Knowledge from the NMDPRA confirmed strong utilisation charges throughout a number of gasoline processing services as of December 2025.

NLNG’s Trains 1–6, with a mixed design capability of three.5 billion customary cubic ft per day, operated at 82.67 per cent utilisation, whereas the Gbaran-Ubie Gasoline Plant achieved 86.36 per cent. The Soku Gasoline Plantneven exceeded nameplate capability, recording a utilisation price of 105.69 per cent.

Different services, together with MPNU BRT, Escravos, and Obite, additionally contributed considerably, though some operated under optimum ranges. In complete, Nigeria equipped a mean of 4.787 Bscf/day of gasoline in December, break up between exports, energy technology, industrial use, and the home market.

In the meantime, a famend professor of economics, Wumi Iledare, has warned that Nigeria dangers undermining its long-term financial growth by prioritising gasoline exports over home utilisation, regardless of the international alternate advantages related to exports.

In a private assertion titled “Gasoline Exports, FX Earnings, and Nigeria’s Developmental Commerce-offs,” Iledare mentioned focusing gasoline growth totally on exports on the expense of gas-to-power and gas-to-industry targets was sub-optimal, even when it appeared commercially enticing within the brief time period.

“Growing gasoline primarily for export whereas neglecting home gas-to-power and gas-to-industry targets is sub-optimal, even whether it is commercially enticing within the brief run,” he mentioned. “International alternate earnings, whereas vital, don’t robotically translate into broad-based financial progress.”

In keeping with him, persistent energy shortages, restricted industrial capability, and weak worth addition impose far greater long-term prices on the Nigerian financial system than the marginal advantages derived from extra international alternate inflows.

Iledare famous that Nigeria’s coverage framework already supplies a transparent roadmap for balancing competing gasoline priorities. He mentioned the 2017 Nationwide Gasoline Coverage and the Petroleum Trade Act anchor gasoline growth on three mutually reinforcing pillars: gas-based industrialisation, gas-to-power for home financial growth, and gasoline exports for income technology.

“Coverage coherence calls for that none of those pillars overwhelms the others,” he said. “Gasoline exports ought to complement, not crowd out, home gasoline utilisation.”

The economist burdened that increasing electrical energy entry, powering factories, and decreasing manufacturing prices throughout the financial system would ship multiplier results that export earnings alone couldn’t replicate.

“The actual check of Nigeria’s gasoline success is just not the quantity exported or the {dollars} earned, however whether or not gasoline growth expands home productive capability, helps industrial progress and improves welfare, whereas nonetheless capturing export worth the place it makes strategic sense,” he mentioned.

Iledare cautioned that Nigeria should resist the temptation to permit gasoline coverage to be pushed largely by international alternate desperation, warning that such an strategy might undermine long-term growth targets.

“For posterity, Nigeria should resist the temptation to permit gasoline coverage to be pushed predominantly by international alternate desperation,” he mentioned. “A balanced gasoline technique, one which optimally aligns industrialisation, gas-to-power and exports, stays probably the most economically noble and sustainable path.”