Inflation drops to fifteen.15% after NBS evaluate

Nigeria’s headline inflation price eased to fifteen.15 per cent in December 2025 following a methodological evaluate by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics, marking a pointy moderation in worth pressures in contrast with each the previous month and the identical interval final 12 months.

The newest Shopper Value Index report launched by the NBS confirmed that the CPI rose to 131.2 factors in December 2025 from 130.5 factors in November, indicating a slower tempo of improve in common costs.

On a year-on-year foundation, inflation declined from 17.33 per cent in November 2025 and was considerably decrease than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, exhibiting a notable deceleration in headline inflation over the 12-month interval.

The report learn, “The Shopper Value Index rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 factors from the earlier month (130.5). The December 2025 year-on-year Headline inflation price stood at 15.15 per cent relative to the November 2025 headline inflation price (17.33 per cent).

“On a year-on-year foundation, the December Headline inflation price was 19.65% decrease than the speed recorded in December 2024 (34.80 per cent). This exhibits that the Headline inflation price (year-on-year foundation) decreased in December 2025 in comparison with the identical month within the previous 12 months (i.e., December 2024), although with a unique base 12 months, November 2009 = 100.”

On a month-on-month foundation, headline inflation stood at 0.54 per cent in December 2025, down from 1.22 per cent in November.

In response to the bureau, this confirmed that “the speed of improve within the common worth degree was decrease in December 2025 than in November 2025,” reflecting easing short-term inflationary stress.

Nevertheless, earlier in December 2025, the NBS had reported that the headline inflation price was 14.45 per cent 12 months on 12 months for November, in contrast with 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025.

Following the methodology evaluate, the NBS now places the November inflation price at 17.33 per cent, increased than the beforehand reported determine. The NBS defined that the December inflation figures have been influenced by a change in methodology following the CPI rebasing.

The year-on-year headline inflation price and different sub-indices have been computed utilizing a twelve-month index reference interval, with the common CPI for 2024 set to 100, reasonably than a single-month reference interval.

The bureau famous that utilizing a single-month base would have produced “a man-made spike within the December 2025 year-on-year inflation price,” pushed by base results reasonably than underlying worth actions.

It added that the adjustment aligns with worldwide greatest follow as outlined within the IMF Shopper Value Index Guide and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Guide. Regardless of the moderation in month-to-month inflation, the twelve-month common inflation price remained elevated.

The share change within the common CPI for the twelve months ending December 2025 over the earlier 12-month interval stood at 23.01 per cent, highlighting the cumulative impression of inflation over the 12 months.

A breakdown of the headline determine confirmed that meals and non-alcoholic drinks remained the biggest contributor to inflation, accounting for six.06 share factors of the year-on-year price.

Eating places and lodging providers contributed 1.96 share factors, transport accounted for 1.62 share factors, whereas housing, water, electrical energy, gasoline, and different fuels contributed 1.28 share factors.

Schooling providers, well being, clothes and footwear, data and communication, and different divisions additionally added to total inflation, although at decrease ranges. Each city and rural inflation eased sharply. City inflation stood at 14.85 per cent 12 months on 12 months in December 2025, down from 37.29 per cent in December 2024.

On a month-on-month foundation, nonetheless, city inflation edged up barely to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in November. The 12-month common city inflation price stood at 23.46 per cent.

Rural inflation fell to 14.56 per cent 12 months on 12 months in December 2025 from 32.47 per cent a 12 months earlier. In contrast to city areas, rural inflation recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.55 per cent, in contrast with a 1.88 per cent improve in November. The corresponding 12-month common rural inflation price was 21.93 per cent.

Meals inflation, which has been a serious stress level for households, recorded one of many steepest enhancements. The meals inflation price dropped to 10.84 per cent 12 months on 12 months in December 2025 from 39.84 per cent in December 2024.

On a month-on-month foundation, meals inflation declined by 0.36 per cent, reversing the 1.13 per cent improve recorded in November. The NBS attributed the decline to falling common costs of things equivalent to tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, greens, plantain, beans, wheat grain, floor pepper, and contemporary onions. The common annual meals inflation price for the twelve months ending December 2025 stood at 22.00 per cent.

Core inflation, which excludes risky agricultural produce and power costs, additionally moderated. The all gadgets much less farm produce and power index confirmed that core inflation eased to 18.63 per cent 12 months on 12 months in December 2025 from 29.28 per cent in December 2024.

Month on month, core inflation slowed to 0.58 per cent from 1.28 per cent in November, whereas the 12-month common core inflation price stood at 23.49 per cent.

Different sub-indices confirmed combined actions. Farm produce costs declined by 0.41 per cent on a month-on-month foundation in December, in contrast with a 0.77 per cent improve in November.

Vitality costs rose by 2.74 per cent in December, increased than the 1.08 per cent improve recorded a month earlier. Providers inflation slowed sharply to 0.15 per cent from 1.78 per cent, whereas items inflation eased barely to 0.64 per cent from 0.73 per cent.

State-level knowledge revealed broad disparities in inflation outcomes. On a year-on-year foundation, Abia recorded the best all-items inflation price at 19.03 per cent, adopted by Ogun at 18.80 per cent and Katsina at 18.66 per cent. Sokoto recorded the slowest rise at 8.61 per cent, whereas Plateau and Kaduna posted 9.05 per cent and 10.38 per cent, respectively.

On a month-on-month foundation, Cross River recorded the best improve in all gadgets inflation at 3.11 per cent, adopted by Abia at 2.63 per cent and Delta at 2.53 per cent. Ondo recorded the sharpest decline at minus 3.74 per cent, whereas Gombe and Jigawa additionally posted notable month-on-month decreases.

Meals inflation additionally assorted extensively throughout states. Yobe recorded the best year-on-year meals inflation price at 15.25 per cent, adopted by Ogun at 14.12 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 13.24 per cent. Akwa Ibom, Sokoto, and Plateau recorded the slowest will increase. On a month-on-month foundation, Imo, Nasarawa, and Yobe recorded the best will increase in meals costs, whereas Plateau, Rivers, and Zamfara recorded declines.

The NBS cautioned towards direct interstate comparisons, noting that consumption patterns and CPI weights differ throughout states. In response to the bureau, “the burden assigned to a specific meals or non-food merchandise could differ from state to state, making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and probably deceptive.”

The PidomNigeria earlier reported that the NBS mentioned that it could ‘normalise’ Nigeria’s inflation knowledge for December 2025 over a projected spike in final month’s Shopper Value Index. This was disclosed throughout a digital stakeholders engagement convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Financial Summit Group

NBS defined that the anticipated spike in inflation is pushed by technical base results linked to the latest rebasing of the inflation collection reasonably than modifications in financial fundamentals.

Offering the official place of the Bureau, Statistician Basic of the Federation and Chief Govt Officer of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, defined that the projected December spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI, which adopted 2024 as the brand new base 12 months after a 15-year hole from the earlier 2009 base.

He emphasised that base results are a typical function of statistical follow, notably in index-based measurements.

“Following the rebasing train and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a big synthetic spike within the inflation price is predicted, as some analysts have already projected. This spike arises from the bottom impact, with December 2024 equated to 100 following the rebasing.

“Base results are widespread in statistical follow, notably when evaluating knowledge throughout durations with unusually excessive or low costs. They’re neither surprising nor uncommon.

“Nevertheless, when such results happen, particularly when they’re synthetic and arithmetic reasonably than reflective of structural modifications within the financial system, it’s important to obviously talk and clarify them to customers,” he said.

Adeniran mentioned transparency and accountability guided the Bureau’s choice to deal with the difficulty proactively.

The Nationwide Affiliation of Small-Scale Industrialists welcomed the moderation in Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation, attributing the result to authorities intervention within the meals provide and improved power circumstances, notably in gas availability. The Nationwide Vice President of NASSI, Segun Kuti-George, informed The PidomNigeria that the easing displays coverage efforts that helped stabilise costs through the festive interval.

Knowledge from the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics confirmed that the year-on-year headline inflation price declined to fifteen.15 per cent in December 2025, from 17.33 per cent in November 2025. On a year-on-year comparability, inflation was 19.65 share factors decrease than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, reflecting a big slowdown, albeit on a unique base 12 months.

Reacting to the figures, the Nationwide Vice President of NASSI, Segun Kuti-George, said that the decline mirrored real modifications in market circumstances reasonably than statistical results alone. He famous that December sometimes experiences worth surges on account of heightened demand, however mentioned the reverse was noticed in 2025.

“There was a noticeable drop within the costs of obligatory items equivalent to meals and family merchandise,” Kuti-George mentioned. “The costs of rice, beans, and different staple meals generally consumed in December didn’t go up as anticipated.”

He attributed the pattern largely to authorities efforts to spice up native meals manufacturing and enhance logistics. In response to him, “what’s accountable is the hassle of the federal government to enhance rice manufacturing and put money into transportation,” including that meals and family necessities remained essentially the most crucial drivers of inflation outcomes.

Kuti-George additionally pointed to developments within the power sector as a key issue behind the easing of inflation. He mentioned gas costs declined in December, supported by improved availability of petroleum merchandise, which helped to decrease transportation and manufacturing prices throughout the financial system.

“We had a drop within the worth of gas and different petroleum merchandise, and we additionally had availability,” he mentioned. “That made a serious distinction, as a result of usually throughout December, shortage pushes costs up, however this time it was the alternative.”

Trying forward, the NASSI vp mentioned the inflation outlook for 2026 would depend upon coverage consistency. He urged the Federal Authorities and the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain coordinated fiscal and financial measures to forestall a resurgence in worth pressures.

“So long as the central financial institution continues to make use of each the financial and financial devices accessible to them with stability, inflation will proceed to gradual,” Kuti-George mentioned, including that authorities should purpose to retain stability and permit solely minimal swings in key financial indicators.

He careworn that sustaining the present tempo of intervention in meals provide and power could be crucial to supporting small-scale producers, stabilising prices and strengthening client buying energy within the new 12 months.