NBS to ‘normalise’ December inflation knowledge over projected spike

The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics has stated that it will ‘normalise’ Nigeria’s inflation knowledge for December 2025 over a projected spike in final month’s Client Worth Index.

This was disclosed on Monday throughout a digital stakeholders engagement convened by the NBS and the Nigerian Financial Summit Group

NBS defined that the anticipated spike in inflation is pushed by technical base results linked to the current rebasing of the inflation sequence fairly than modifications in financial fundamentals.

The PidomNigeria reported that a number of analysts have projected a spike within the headline inflation for December on the again of base results. Projections ranged from 31.4–32.4 per cent year-on-year.

Offering the official place of the Bureau, Statistician Basic of the Federation and Chief Govt Officer of NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, defined that the projected December spike stems from the rebasing of the CPI, which adopted 2024 as the brand new base 12 months after a 15-year hole from the earlier 2009 base.

He emphasised that base results are a standard function of statistical follow, notably in index-based measurements.

“Following the rebasing train and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a big synthetic spike within the inflation charge is predicted, as some analysts have already projected. This spike arises from the bottom impact, with December 2024 equated to 100 following the rebasing.

“Base results are widespread in statistical follow, notably when evaluating knowledge throughout intervals with unusually excessive or low costs. They’re neither surprising nor uncommon.

“Nevertheless, when such results happen, particularly when they’re synthetic and arithmetic fairly than reflective of structural modifications within the economic system, it’s important to obviously talk and clarify them to customers,” he acknowledged.

Adeniran stated transparency and accountability guided the Bureau’s determination to handle the problem proactively.

“Transparency requires that we offer a transparent image of precise value modifications fairly than merely reporting a synthetic spike that doesn’t mirror financial realities. Because of this we convened this assembly to tell our crucial stakeholders and customers of our knowledge,” he added.

In his opening feedback on the session, the NESG Chief Govt Officer, Dr Tayo Aduloju, underscored the rising significance of credible inflation knowledge as Nigeria transitions from financial stabilisation to consolidation.

“Because the economic system shifts from stabilisation reforms to consolidation reforms, the position of official statistics—particularly the CPI—turns into not much less essential, however very, very essential,” Aduloju stated.

He famous that preliminary assessments counsel inflation figures might report non permanent technical spikes, stressing that such outcomes ought to be rigorously interpreted.

“During times of acute instability, headline inflation serves as an alarm bell.

“However as we transfer from managing disaster to managing progress, CPI statistics should assist us perceive inflation dynamics correctly, not simply react mechanically to headlines,” he stated.

Aduloju warned that deceptive inflation alerts throughout the consolidation section might undermine hard-won good points.

“On this section of macroeconomic transition, coverage errors might be very expensive,” he stated. “Credible CPI statistics anchor coverage coherence, information financial coverage calibration, inform fiscal planning, form wage negotiations, and affect funding choices.”

Delivering the technical presentation, Director of Worth Statistics at NBS, Dr Ayo Anthony, detailed the methodological challenges created by the rebasing train and the steps taken to resolve them.

“The final CPI rebasing was accomplished in 2009, and ideally this train ought to be carried out each 5 years,” Anthony stated. “Due to this 15-year hole, consumption patterns modified considerably, resulting in the introduction of over 400 new merchandise into the CPI basket and the elimination of greater than 200 objects.”

He defined that linking the brand new CPI sequence—with 934 merchandise and a 13-division COICOP classification, to the previous sequence created unavoidable statistical problems.

“To compute year-on-year inflation, we needed to hyperlink the rebased CPI to the previous sequence,” he stated. “Utilizing December 2024 equal to 100 allowed that linkage, but it surely additionally launched the bottom impact we at the moment are seeing.”

Anthony warned that with out adjustment, the December 2025 inflation determine might seem considerably inflated.

“For transparency and accountability, we’re partaking stakeholders to elucidate the statistical resolution, which aligns with world greatest follow. Projections present that with out adjustment, December year-on-year inflation might seem excessively excessive due solely to arithmetic base results, fairly than underlying financial circumstances.

“To handle this, NBS will apply a normalisation course of, as supplied for within the CPI Guide 2020 (Chapter 9, Part 9.125), known as maximisation of the index reference interval. The place a single-month reference interval proves unsuitable, the guide recommends utilizing a three-month or 12-month common. Accordingly, as a substitute of December 2024 equalling 100, the common CPI from January to December 2024 will equal 100.

“This adjustment removes the unreal base impact and presents a extra correct image of inflation dynamics. Whereas this adjustment impacts printed figures for January to December 2025, the impression will not be important and will probably be clearly communicated to stakeholders,” he defined.

He added that whereas the adjustment impacts inflation figures from January to December 2025, the impression on beforehand printed knowledge is minimal and will probably be clearly disclosed.

“We’re not hiding something. For transparency, we’ll nonetheless make reference to the unreal spike in our experiences,” Anthony stated.

The NBS official additionally emphasised that the choice was not made in isolation, stating that technical companions, together with the Worldwide Financial Fund, the World Financial institution, and the Central Bank of Nigeria, have been consulted to reach at this determination.

Trying forward, he famous that the bottom impact would not apply from January 2026, as inflation calculations would rely solely on the rebased CPI basket.

“From January 2026 onward, the bottom impact will not apply, as comparisons will probably be made utilizing precise index values from the rebased basket,” he stated.

The NBS used the engagement to reiterate the significance of standard rebasing of macroeconomic indicators.

Anthony stated, “The important thing lesson right here is the necessity to rebase CPI and GDP as at when due. When rebasing is finished each 5 years, we keep away from these uncommon distortions.”

The NBS reaffirmed its dedication to sustained stakeholder engagement, methodological rigour, and clear communication because it seeks to strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s official statistics.