Nigeria loses N1.76tn after lacking OPEC quota

Nigeria’s oil sector misplaced an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil income attributable to its failure to satisfy the manufacturing quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations from January 2025 to January 2026.

Knowledge from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Fee revealed that the nation’s crude oil manufacturing fell beneath the OPEC-set goal of 1.5 million barrels per day in 9 months in 2025 and repeated the identical within the first month of 2026, whilst international crude costs remained reasonably robust.

Based on the figures, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding its quota by about 40,000 barrels per day. Manufacturing additionally barely exceeded the quota in June and July, with each day outputs of 1.51 mbpd, translating to surpluses of roughly 10,000–30,000 barrels per day.

Nonetheless, manufacturing in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), Could (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd), and December (1.42 mbpd) fell beneath the benchmark.

The month-to-month shortfalls towards the OPEC quota ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, with the biggest deficit recorded in September.

In February, common manufacturing stood at 1.47 mbpd. Over 28 days, this amounted to 41.16 million barrels, in comparison with the 42 million barrels anticipated below the quota, leaving a shortfall of 840,000 barrels. Output dropped additional to 1.4 mbpd in March. Whole manufacturing for the month was 43.4 million barrels as an alternative of 46.5 million barrels, leading to a deficit of three.1 million barrels.

Based on the information, crude manufacturing averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in April. Throughout 30 days, this translated to 42.9 million barrels, leaving a niche of two.1 million barrels from the 45 million-barrel goal for the month.

The fifth month recorded roughly 1.45 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days of Could, Nigeria produced 44.95 million barrels towards a quota requirement of 46.5 million barrels, leaving a deficit of 1.55 million barrels.

In August, manufacturing slipped to about 1.48 million barrels per day, yielding 45.88 million barrels in comparison with the anticipated 46.5 million barrels, making a shortfall of 620,000 barrels. In September, manufacturing fell to 1.39 mbpd — the bottom within the yr. Over 30 days, output reached 41.7 million barrels as an alternative of 45 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of three.3 million barrels.

Equally, in October, common manufacturing of 1.44 million barrels per day resulted in 44.64 million barrels in comparison with 46.5 million barrels anticipated. The shortfall was 1.86 million barrels.

November recorded a median output of 1.46 mbpd; whole manufacturing was 43.8 million barrels versus 45 million barrels below the quota. The deficit was 1.2 million barrels. In December, manufacturing hovered round 1.47 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days, Nigeria produced 45.57 million barrels as an alternative of 46.5 million barrels, leading to a niche of 930,000 barrels.

Cumulatively, these 9 months produced a gross shortfall of roughly 18.7 million barrels.

Nonetheless, January, June, and July recorded slight surpluses above the quota. After deducting the mixed surplus from these three months, the web annual manufacturing deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.

In January 2026, crude manufacturing stood at a median of 1.459 mbpd, leading to a each day shortfall of 41,000 barrels per day. This translated to a shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels for the month. Consequently, from January 2025 to January 2026, Nigeria’s OPEC shortfalls amassed to 18.12 million barrels.

Based on knowledge from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Bonny Mild, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated ranges within the early a part of the yr earlier than easing within the second quarter.

Bonny Mild crude offered at a median of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Costs dropped additional in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in Could, reflecting softer international oil market circumstances.

Costs recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely secure within the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, earlier than falling once more to $66.15 in October, the newest month for which CBN knowledge have been out there.

Utilizing the straightforward common of the ten month-to-month Bonny Mild costs revealed by the CBN, crude costs averaged $72.08 per barrel over the interval below evaluation. Multiplying 18.12 million barrels by $72.08 provides an estimated misplaced income of $1.31bn. On the prevailing alternate charge of N1,353 per greenback, this interprets to roughly N1.76tn.

This loss got here regardless of Nigeria’s whole oil manufacturing for 2025 reaching 530.41 million barrels, producing gross income of about N55.5tn on the identical common value and alternate charge.

Analysts famous that this determine represented gross inflows and didn’t account for manufacturing prices, three way partnership money calls, production-sharing contract value recoveries, home obligations, or oil theft.

Based on them, the underperformance towards the OPEC quota highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, together with operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, safety points within the Niger Delta area, and fluctuations in manufacturing effectivity throughout totally different fields.

For comparability, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding the quota by 38,700 barrels per day, whereas the biggest deficit occurred in September, when manufacturing averaged 1.39 mbpd, leaving a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. These fluctuations underline the volatility that continues to have an effect on Nigeria’s oil-dependent economic system.

The shortfall additionally offers context for the 2026 oil benchmark, which is extra conservative. The federal government has set a projected each day oil (crude and condensate) manufacturing of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil value of $64.85 per barrel, and a median alternate charge of N1,400 per greenback, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in international oil markets and home manufacturing challenges. Nonetheless, the January 2026 determine isn’t an excellent begin for the 2026 funds.

An power skilled, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, stated assembly oil manufacturing targets would rely far much less on formidable projections and way more on sensible, on-the-ground actions.

Iledare informed The PidomNigeria that the federal government should prioritise improved safety round oil property, cut back operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a secure working setting that enables present fields to provide at full capability.

Based on Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “Whereas that is an enchancment, it nonetheless fell in need of what the Federal Authorities anticipated for the yr,” he stated.

The don famous that the principle challenge was not oil costs however manufacturing. He defined that the federal government deliberate to provide 766.5 million barrels in 2025 however managed to provide solely about 599.6 million barrels, which means near 167 million barrels weren’t produced, and the income that would have include them was misplaced.

“Looking forward to 2026, assembly oil manufacturing targets will rely far much less on formidable projections and way more on sensible, on-the-ground actions. The federal government should prioritise improved safety round oil property, cut back operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a secure working setting that enables present fields to provide at full capability,” he said.

He added that supporting funding in upkeep and infill drilling — whereas making certain coverage consistency — might be crucial to changing deliberate barrels into precise barrels.

The skilled known as on the Impartial Petroleum Producers Group to guide the cost by reopening shut-in wells. “On this regard, the IPPG holds a key position in near-term manufacturing enlargement. With acceptable financial and coverage incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells within the onshore and shallow-water basins might ship significant manufacturing good points inside the yr,” Iledare defined.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, stated crude manufacturing quantity depends on a number of elements, lots of that are past the speedy management of the federal government.

Based on him, the federal government can deploy assets in direction of oil exploration, however the total influence will depend on technical cooperation by companions, joint ventures, developments within the international oil market, and environmental circumstances, amongst others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian state of affairs is complicated, as the important thing company in cost, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the interval.

In the meantime, in response to OPEC’s Month-to-month Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026, although output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd in January.

Regardless of the marginal enchancment, manufacturing remained beneath the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the nation has missed its OPEC goal, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.

Nonetheless, the brand new Chief Govt of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to extend oil manufacturing. The NUPRC boss stated her imaginative and prescient for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: manufacturing optimisation and income enlargement; regulatory predictability and pace; and secure, ruled and sustainable operations.

Based on her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to develop Nigeria’s crude oil manufacturing to 2 mbpd by 2027 and three mbpd by 2030.