Conflict far from over; oil to carry lasting premium as risks escalate: Experts

The ongoing West Asia conflict shows little sign of easing, with experts warning that geopolitical tensions could keep oil prices elevated and markets on edge for an extended period.

Speaking at a CNBC-TV18 townhall, BlackRock Investment Institute strategist Ben Powell said recent diplomatic signals from Donald Trump may have lifted market sentiment briefly, but ground realities remain “very tense,” with continued drone and missile strikes across the region.

Energy analyst Art Berman struck a more blunt note, saying he sees “no de-escalation” and expects the situation to worsen. He cautioned that political messaging may be “performative,” and not reflective of the actual trajectory of the conflict.
On oil markets, Berman said a structural risk premium is now inevitable, regardless of how the conflict evolves. Even in a best-case scenario where hostilities end quickly, Brent crude may struggle to fall below $80 per barrel. In a more realistic base case, prices could remain in the $100–$150 range through 2026, he said.

He added that emergency stockpile releases would offer only limited relief, given the scale of potential supply disruptions, particularly if infrastructure damage worsens.

Powell noted that broader financial markets may not have fully priced in the shock, even as energy markets react. Higher oil prices, he said, could feed into inflation while slowing growth, raising the risk of a stagflationary environment.

From an investment perspective, Powell said the world is moving into a more fragmented regime marked by tariffs, deglobalisation, and geopolitical stress, making broad-based market rallies less likely.

On India, he said valuations are becoming more attractive and growth fundamentals remain intact, but global capital flows could stay cautious in the near term due to energy-linked uncertainties.

Both experts agreed that the crisis could have lasting economic consequences, with energy shocks, supply disruptions, and geopolitical fragmentation reshaping markets well beyond the immediate conflict.