Jet gas disaster could increase Dangote exports to Europe

Europe might more and more flip to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for jet gas provides following disruptions within the Center East.

In response to a report by Kpler, the efficient closure of the Strait of Hormuz has lower off almost 21 per cent of world seaborne jet gas provide, considerably tightening availability in Europe.

The report famous that European imports might drop by virtually 300,000 barrels per day, with about 247,000 bpd usually destined for North West Europe.

Kpler mentioned the lack of Center Jap cargoes has left Europe with restricted substitute choices, as conventional backup suppliers in Asia are redirecting shipments to fulfill stronger regional demand.

“Jap barrels are more and more unavailable as sturdy Asian pricing and export restrictions in China, and probably South Korea, divert cargoes away from Europe,” the report acknowledged.

It added that cargoes from India, notably from the Jamnagar refinery, would usually present reduction in such conditions, however issues over European Union sanctions linked to Russian crude have discouraged patrons.

With provide from the East constrained, consideration is shifting to the Atlantic Basin, particularly the US Gulf Coast and West Africa, together with the Dangote refinery.

Kpler famous that Dangote exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet gas in 2025, positioning it as a possible various provide supply for Europe.

The report mentioned West Africa has turn into structurally lengthy on refined merchandise, largely on account of output from the Dangote refinery, that means export volumes might nonetheless be accessible even when home provide priorities are maintained.

“The US Atlantic Coast is basically provided from inside the US, with some stream from Canada, and therefore the response within the US has been considerably weaker. We anticipate extra exports to return in March from the USGC, serving to to offset the misplaced cargoes from the AG.

“The USGC won’t totally offset the lacking quantity, however with West Africa successfully a web lengthy area in 2024, due to the Dangote refinery, there may be one other provide level that may be tapped. Dangote exported round 89kbd of jet gas in 2025.

“This structural size signifies that even when a coverage of first supplying the home Nigerian market have been enacted, exports would nonetheless materialise, particularly because the refinery returns from upkeep,” Kpler mentioned.

Nonetheless, analysts cautioned that provides from different sources wouldn’t be ample to completely offset the shortfall created by the lack of Center Jap flows.

Kpler mentioned exports from the US Gulf Coast stay constrained by current demand from Latin America, specification variations, and infrastructure limitations, regardless of arbitrage alternatives to Europe.

“General, exports not often exceed a million tonnes in a month, though in January exports hit an all-time excessive of 307,000 barrels per day,” it added.

The report additionally highlighted logistical challenges in redistributing provides inside Europe, noting that refinery configurations, current diesel commitments, and infrastructure limitations might hinder efforts to spice up jet gas output domestically.

Whereas sustainable aviation gas is progressively gaining traction in Europe on account of regulatory mandates, Kpler mentioned it nonetheless accounts for less than a small share of whole provide and would have minimal affect on the present provide hole.

Consequently, the report concluded that even with elevated flows from the US and West Africa, together with the Dangote refinery, Europe is unlikely to completely exchange misplaced Center Jap jet gas provides within the close to time period.

It mentioned the market would as a substitute have to regulate by means of greater costs and longer commerce routes to rebalance provide.