Recent gas import licences set off Dangote export risk

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is planning to export all of the petrol, diesel, and jet gas produced on the 650,000-barrels-per-day facility situated in Lekki, Lagos State, a plan that will plunge Nigeria into gas shortage.

This comes amid studies that South Africa and different African nations had been lobbying the Dangote refinery for improved gas provides.

Impeccable sources on the refinery mentioned the Dangote Group is contemplating the export choice as a result of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority remains to be issuing licences for the importation of petrol.

The allegation persists regardless of a collection of denials by the NMDPRA that no licence had been issued for the importation of petrol from January 1, 2026, thus far.

Talking in an unique interview with our correspondent, a really senior administration official on the Dangote Group mentioned the refinery would resort to exporting all its merchandise, for the reason that Federal Authorities has continued to problem import licences for petroleum merchandise.

“Properly, since import licences are nonetheless being given, we’ll as properly export all our productions,” the supply, who pleaded for anonymity as a result of lack of authorisation to talk on the matter, informed The PidomNigeria.

Our correspondent reminded the official that the NMDPRA had repeatedly debunked claims that it granted import licences to entrepreneurs this yr, however the supply insisted that import licences had been nonetheless being issued.

In keeping with the official, the President of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, had mentioned import licences had been not too long ago granted to 6 entrepreneurs to import Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) into the nation.

“I’m certain that you simply noticed my president’s assertion that a minimum of six firms have been given import licences. I do know for certain that import licences are nonetheless being granted,” the supply insisted.

When the official was reminded that the whole export of all Dangote refinery’s output would throw the nation right into a deep vitality disaster, as gas shortage would return queues to filling stations, the highest official queried why the Nigerian authorities was not defending its business amid the continued struggle within the Center East.

The official said that the USA President, Donald Trump, is preventing for his nation whereas the world is resisting him to guard their industries.

“In the event that they know there will likely be gas shortage, why are they giving import licenses when the entire world is making an attempt to guard their native industries? Trump is preventing for the US, and the remainder of the world is resisting him to guard their very own industries. I do know Nigeria can not afford one other vitality shortage, particularly at a time when a worldwide shortage is increase due to the struggle,” the supply said.

Requested for the best way out to forestall sending all output to international nations whereas Nigerians battle for gas, the supply replied, “The federal government can determine as they want.”

A report by Bloomberg on Friday said that a number of African governments, most notably South Africa, have begun aggressive outreach to the Dangote refinery. The refinery is seeing a major surge in enquiries as conventional provide routes from the Center East face unprecedented disruptions.

“Proper now, it’s not about pricing; it’s about availability. I feel the scenario will proceed for some time,” Aliko Dangote reportedly said in a current interview with The Economist.

South Africa, one of many continent’s largest vitality shoppers, was mentioned to be among the many first to formally sign its intent to diversify its sources. The federal government is shifting to mitigate the dangers related to instability within the Persian Gulf by wanting towards West Africa.

“The federal government is actively coordinating with business stakeholders to safe each crude oil and refined petroleum merchandise from a diversified vary of sources,” a spokesperson for the South African authorities informed Bloomberg.

Past South Africa, different African nations are reportedly “scrambling” to safe provide contracts that guarantee their native markets stay secure regardless of the worldwide turmoil.

The Dangote refinery has served as a serious gas provide lifeline for Nigeria and West Africa, shielding the nation from the exterior shocks attributable to the Center East disaster, although a litre of petrol has jumped from N839 per litre to N1,336 for the reason that struggle began on February 28.

NMDPRA speaks

In the meantime, the NMDPRA has insisted that the nation has not issued any import licence this yr, debunking allegations that six entrepreneurs acquired licences to herald petrol. The company asserted that vessels bringing petrol into the nation this time had been from licences issued within the final quarter of 2025.

February figures present that the Dangote refinery produced a median of 36 million litres per day, whereas nationwide consumption was about 56 million litres per day, leaving an obvious hole.

A supply inside NMDPRA, talking on situation of anonymity as a result of lack of authorisation to talk on the matter, defined that the refinery’s unsold shares had been rolled over attributable to weather-related export delays in Europe on the finish of 2025, closing the availability hole in February.

“The shortfall rolled over from earlier shares. This stuff are easy. Our truth sheets are printed month-to-month. There have been rollover shares. Dangote didn’t export for a very long time in direction of the top of final yr. So, it was these rolled-over shares that it provided. Each entrepreneurs and Dangote are solely jostling for market shares. Has there been a scarcity? No!” the supply mentioned.

The regulator additionally refuted claims by Dangote that new licences had been issued to 6 firms to import petrol, noting that licences are granted quarterly.

“People who had been issued in direction of the top of final yr had been nonetheless getting used. A licence for importation shouldn’t be like taking cash to the grocery store to purchase one thing off the shelf. It takes time for vessels to reach. We now have not issued any import licence this yr. You may select to imagine whoever you need. We’re the regulator, however if you wish to imagine one thing totally different from what we report, you might be free to. However I’ll advise you to stay to our truth sheets, which come out month-to-month,” the NMDPRA supply mentioned.

Nigeria has traditionally relied on imported refined petroleum merchandise attributable to restricted home refining capability. Nonetheless, the operational Dangote refinery, producing 650,000 barrels per day, has shifted the downstream dynamics. NMDPRA confirmed that home refineries provided 36.5 million litres per day in February 2026, with imports contributing simply three million litres, representing roughly 92 per cent of the nationwide every day provide.

Earlier, the Chief Government of the NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, confused that the company is ending an period of heavy petrol importation, saying the nation should maintain the beneficial properties made in home refining.

Mohammed mentioned some pursuits had been nonetheless pushing for the continuation of large-scale gas importation regardless of the nation’s progress in boosting home refining capability.

“Right this moment, we have now a refinery that meets our necessities. However there are nonetheless individuals who need us to stay in section three of importation. I need to inform you. So, we have now to do all we will to make it possible for what has been achieved is sustained. That’s the laborious work and the laborious a part of our job,” he mentioned.

The NMDPRA boss defined that Nigeria’s petroleum sector has traditionally handed by means of totally different phases, from early home refining to the lengthy interval of import dependence attributable to the collapse of state-owned refineries.

“We now have a historical past of shifting by means of phases. Section one was very, superb. Most of us weren’t born then. We understood that there was just one refinery and that the merchandise had been being moved by rail. Once we grew up, we noticed waggons of various colors, and we had been informed these had been petroleum merchandise,” he mentioned.

In keeping with him, the second section emerged with the institution of the Nigerian Nationwide Petroleum Firm Restricted and the development of extra refineries and pipeline infrastructure that improved gas distribution throughout the nation.

Nonetheless, he defined that the scenario deteriorated when Nigeria’s refineries steadily stopped working, forcing the nation into nearly whole reliance on imported petrol.

“Till we entered the dangerous section, section three, when the refineries went down one after the other, and we had been confronted with this dangerous section of importation, nearly 100 per cent. It was a nasty section, however good for some companies. That’s how we ended up lining up tank farms between Calabar and Badagry,” Mohammed said.

He famous that greater than 200 tank farms sprang up alongside Nigeria’s shoreline throughout the interval, reflecting the nation’s heavy dependence on imported gas.

“Over 200 tank farms had been counting on importation as a result of Nigeria is a really massive market, and that created enterprise alternatives for some folks. Till the large bang got here, which is section 4. Right this moment we have now a refinery that meets our necessities,” he mentioned, referring to the Dangote refinery.

He regretted that “there are nonetheless individuals who need us to stay in section three. So we should do the whole lot attainable to maintain what has been achieved.”

Talking with our correspondent, the Vice President of the Impartial Petroleum Entrepreneurs Affiliation of Nigeria, Ahmed Fashola, mentioned the nation ought to prioritise home refining. In keeping with Fashola, Nigeria’s rising reliance on native provide represents progress for the downstream petroleum sector.

“If in the present day we’re capable of obtain 90 or 92 per cent of our provide domestically, I feel we’re doing properly. We must always give it to Dangote,” he said.

Fashola added that the emergence of the refinery has helped protect Nigerians from potential spikes in gas costs amid international geopolitical tensions within the Center East. With the struggle among the many US, Iran, and Israel, Fashola argued that the worth of petrol would have risen to N3,000 or N4,000 per litre.

“If not for Dangote, with the little disruption and the disaster between the USA and Iran, by now we might have seen loads of queues and petrol promoting perhaps for N3,000 or N4,000 per litre,” he mentioned.

He additionally expressed assist for the suspension of import licences, describing it as essential to encourage home refining capability.

“We must be grateful to Dangote. And we have now to assist it. We now have to encourage him to do extra. And we equally assist stopping import licences. It’s the best way to go. We now have to assist our native manufacturing. We now have to encourage the refiners. We now have to assist them in any means for them to succeed. Once they succeed, the nation additionally succeeds,” Fashola added.

If the refinery proceeds with exporting all its output, business gamers warned that the instant affect could possibly be a tightening of home provide, doubtlessly triggering contemporary gas shortages, lengthy queues, and upward stress on pump costs.

Such a state of affairs, they famous, wouldn’t solely pressure households and companies however might additionally reverse current beneficial properties in stabilising the downstream sector at a time when international provide disruptions are already heightening vitality safety considerations.