Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI: New orders return to progress as promoting worth inflation eases to lowest in over six years

The Nigerian personal sector returned to progress in February, following a muted begin to 2026. A renewed rise in new orders fed via to an accelerated improve in enterprise exercise. Employment, enter shopping for and inventories had been additionally up halfway via the opening quarter of the yr. In the meantime, an enchancment within the energy of the forex helped result in an easing of inflationary pressures, with each buy prices and output costs rising on the slowest charges in simply over six years. The headline determine derived from the survey is the Stanbic IBTC Buying Managers’ Index™ (PMI®).

Muyiwa Oni, Head of Fairness Analysis West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank commented: “After the dip seen in January, Nigerian personal sector returned to progress, with the headline PMI settling greater at 53.2 factors in February from 49.7 in January. This was according to greater buyer demand, which drove greater new product choices at aggressive pricing. Accordingly, output (55.8 vs January: 50.2) regained momentum in February whereas new orders (55.5 vs January: 49.9) additionally elevated markedly within the month. Notably, the wholesale & retail sector, which had dipped in January, returned to progress, thereby making certain that every one the 4 monitored sectors by the survey elevated in February. Elsewhere, native forex appreciation helped to assist softer enter and output costs in February, because the naira has been buying and selling beneath 1400 in opposition to the USD persistently since 29 January.

Strengthening exterior account, greater offshore FX flows, and enchancment in remittances proceed to assist greater FX provides with the CBN additionally stepping in by shopping for USD within the FX market to average the tempo of native forex appreciation. The Nigerian financial system is on monitor to develop by 3.86% y/y in Q1:26 and we nonetheless see actual GDP progress at 4.1% y/y in 2026. The federal government has been seen in infrastructure, livestock growth, easing commerce constraints, and attracting investments in oil & gasoline and manufacturing. Apart from that, the Dangote refinery is anticipated to proceed to have forward-linkage impression on different sectors of the financial system.

Moreover, seemingly decrease rates of interest according to decrease inflation and trade price stabilization ought to assist personal consumption and enterprise investments in 2026. Due to these components, we see extra sectors contributing to actual GDP progress price in 2026 in comparison with 2025, seemingly translating to an enchancment within the high quality of lives of the residents in comparison with the final two years when the residents witnessed the complete adverse impression of the federal government’s flagship reforms.”

Readings above 50.0 sign an enchancment in enterprise situations on the earlier month, whereas readings beneath 50.0 present a deterioration. After dipping beneath the 50.0 no change mark in January, the headline PMI recovered from the studying of 49.7 to 53.2 in February. As such, the most recent knowledge pointed to a strong month-to-month enchancment within the well being of the personal sector. Apart from January’s blip, enterprise situations have improved constantly since December 2024. New orders returned to progress in February, with anecdotal proof pointing to bettering buyer demand and higher product affordability.

The rise in new enterprise, greater buyer numbers and new product choices helped result in a rejuvenation in progress of output, which elevated markedly and on the quickest tempo in 4 months. All 4 monitored sectors noticed exercise rise as wholesale & retail posted a renewed growth. Increased new orders led corporations to broaden their staffing ranges once more, and on the quickest tempo since final October. Employment has now elevated in 9 consecutive months.

Regardless of sustained job creation, nevertheless, backlogs of labor elevated on the quickest tempo since Might 2020. Panellists linked rising excellent enterprise to delayed shopper funds, shortages of workers and supplies, and energy provide points. A want to maintain up with order necessities meant that corporations expanded their buying exercise and stock holdings markedly in February. Suppliers’ supply instances continued to shorten, nevertheless, amid immediate funds and improved visitors situations. A stronger forex led to a marked easing within the tempo of buy price inflation in February.

The newest rise in buy costs was the weakest in simply over six years. The place inflation was recorded, panellists linked this to greater costs for animal feed and uncooked supplies. In the meantime, cost-of-living funds to staff meant that workers prices continued to rise. With the speed of buy price inflation softening, corporations additionally raised their output costs at a a lot weaker tempo. Right here too, the speed of inflation was the weakest since January 2020. Promoting efforts and enterprise growth plans had been central to optimistic expectations for output over the following 12 months. Sentiment picked up in February, however remained comparatively muted.