US VP Vance questions Israel’s war assumptions as behind-the-scenes tensions grow

US Vice President JD Vance has flagged concerns over Israel’s assessment of the ongoing war, signalling growing friction within Washington’s approach to the conflict.

According to an Axios report, Vance told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a “difficult” call earlier this week that several of Israel’s pre-war projections have not played out as expected.

This includes the assumption that the conflict could trigger a popular uprising in Iran, Axios reported.

The development comes as Vance is being positioned at the centre of US diplomatic efforts. The report said he is likely to lead potential peace talks with Iran, having already held multiple discussions with Israeli leadership, engaged Gulf allies, and been involved in indirect communication with Tehran.

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US President Donald Trump has formally tasked Vance with a larger role in the negotiations, the report noted, adding that he is working alongside key figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Vance’s growing role is also tied to his stance on foreign conflicts. His scepticism of prolonged military engagements makes him a more acceptable counterpart for Iran compared to other US negotiators.

At the same time, tensions appear to be building behind the scenes. Vance’s team believes some sections within Israel are attempting to undermine his position, possibly due to differences in approach, the report said. However, the same report also underlined that Israeli officials have denied these claims.

The report also highlighted that Vance had been among the more cautious voices within the administration before the war began, raising concerns about its duration and broader impact. However, once military action was underway, he supported a strategy aimed at achieving a quick outcome.

On the ground, diplomatic efforts are still in motion. Mediators from countries like Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are working to facilitate direct talks, though Iran is yet to signal readiness, the report added.

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