Cassava Paradox: Can Nigeria stop importing the ethanol it can produce?

By Prisca Sam-Duru

Nigeria’s need for ethanol is growing, yet the country remains trapped in a cycle of dependency. Insights from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA) indicate that in 2024, national demand hit 400 million litres. Analysis from Clean Technology Hub indicates that about a staggering 75 per cent of demand, which is roughly 300 to 350 million litres—was sourced from abroad. This reliance on imports persists despite a striking reality: Nigeria is the world’s largest cassava producer, harvesting over 60 million tonnes annually, according to National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS). This is also an indication that the country already has the raw material for a self-sufficient ethanol industry.

The question is no longer whether we have the crops, but whether Nigeria’s agro-industrial sector can organize the supply chains and processing systems required to produce ethanol competitively at an industrial scale.

A Multipurpose Industrial Fuel

The demand for ethanol spans several industries. It is the silent engine behind several of Nigeria’s most resilient sectors. Beverage producers require it for spirits production; pharmaceutical and hygiene-product manufacturers depend on it as a high-purity solvent; and the cosmetics industry uses it as a base for countless formulations.

As the federal government intensifies discussions around fuel-blending and green energy, a new frontier of demand is emerging. A diversified market like this provides a safety net for domestic production, provided supply systems are organized to meet industrial requirements.

Cassava As Raw Material For Ethanol

NCIA research indicates that under standard conditions, one tonne of cassava yields approximately 160 litres of ethanol. To completely replace Nigeria’s current imports, the industry would require roughly 1.8 to 2.0 million tonnes of cassava—a mere 3 per cent of the national production.

However, cassava to ethanol is a complex process with high capital requirements. Unlike sugarcane molasses, which ferments with relative ease, cassava starch must be crushed, extracted, and enzymatically converted into fermentable sugars.

The primary advantage for Nigeria lies in geography. Cassava thrives across multiple agroecological zones, allowing for staggered planting and year-round harvesting. By domesticating this feedstock, Nigeria can shield its manufacturers from the twin headaches of foreign exchange volatility and the logistical nightmares of international shipping.

Meanwhile, critics often argue that diverting cassava to ethanol might threaten food security since cassava is also a staple crop. However, the data suggests otherwise. Because the volume required for import substitution is such a small fraction of national output, the real risk isn’t a shortage of food—it’s the lack of structure. The challenge is to build structured industrial supply systems that operate alongside, rather than in competition with traditional food markets.

 A Market Signal From Industry

The most credible evidence that cassava-to-ethanol production can be commercially viable is already active in Nigeria’s ethanol market. Major players such as Nosak Group, an established leader in the distillery space, are currently building an integrated cassava supply chain through its subsidiary, Premier Plantations. By reportedly acquiring farmland in Edo State and developing robust outgrower partnerships, the group is commissioning an additional cassava-to-ethanol facility. This signals a strategic shift: securing a local feedstock is the only way to ensure long-term price stability and operational sovereignty.

Three Pillars of Scalability

For new operators to follow suit, three operational hurdles must be cleared: Feedstock Reliability – Spot-market sourcing is the enemy of industrial efficiency. Success requires structured farmer networks and sophisticated logistics to ensure a consistent flow of cassava to the factory gates.

Plant utilisation and economics: The economics of ethanol production depend heavily on plant utilisation, energy costs, and conversion efficiency. Facilities that operate below capacity struggle to recover their fixed costs. In addition to the core ethanol output, by-products such as fermentation residues, which can be used as animal feed, and captured carbon dioxide, for beverage production, can provide additional revenue streams and strengthen overall project economics.

 Market alignment: Ethanol buyers have strict quality requirements. Beverage manufacturers need food-grade ethanol with traceability. Pharmaceutical and cosmetics buyers require compliance and batch-level consistency. Fuel blending, where it develops at scale, requires certification and reliable volumes. Operators must decide early which customer segments they are targeting and engineer quality systems to match from the onset.

From Abundance to Industry

The technology for cassava-to-ethanol is already a proven success in nations like Thailand and Vietnam.

Nigeria’s challenge lies in building the operational systems that make large-scale cassava processing reliable. Industrial cassava processing depends on consistent feedstock supply, coordinated aggregation and logistics, credible offtake markets, and financing structures aligned with the realities of industrial production.

Nigeria’s reliance on imported ethanol is, therefore, not inevitable. With the right systems in place, a small fraction of national cassava output could support significant domestic production.

The task ahead is to convert agricultural abundance into reliable industrial supply, expanding Nigeria’s agro-industrial base and boosting rural incomes.