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For many states, partnership with China makes more sense than rivalry

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This month, a telling scene unfolded in Addis Ababa. The African Union and China held their ninth strategic dialogue in the Ethiopian capital and launched the 2026 China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges, framing the agenda around modernisation, connectivity and industrialisation rather than bloc politics.

The moment captures what many smaller states are doing in today’s fractured world: choosing workable partnership over performative rivalry.

The loudest conversations in global politics orbit great power competition. Yet for governments in Accra, Jakarta or Rabat, competition is rarely an abstract contest of slogans. It is supply chains being rewired, nervous capital, tighter credit, delayed projects and the risk of explaining stalled growth at home. Turning China into a primary adversary is not a strategy; it is an expensive bet.

These states are naive about Beijing. Many see asymmetries, debt risks and the possibility of overdependence. But their officials also face a blunt arithmetic: distancing from China does not automatically produce replacement finance, markets or technology. When budgets are tight and infrastructure gaps are visible, burning one of the few available bridges can become a self-inflicted constraint.

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For many governments, the key question is simple: who will build, at what cost, on what timeline and with which conditions?

Electricity grids, ports, logistics corridors, industrial estates and broadband are the foundations of jobs and revenue. They are also the quickest way citizens measure state performance. So partnership with China, negotiated carefully, often looks more rational than joining a vague “containment” campaign.

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