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Pax Sinica vs Pax Silica: how China-US mineral war is taking shape

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If 2026 were a chess match, critical minerals would be the opening gambit, and both China and the United States are going all out. On January 28, China’s Zijin Mining announced a US$4 billion takeover of Allied Gold’s three African mines. On February 3, Swiss mining giant Glencore entered talks to sell a 40 per cent stake in its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) copper and cobalt operations to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium.

Between the two announcements, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted 54 countries in Washington on February 4 for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, unveiling US$30 billion in financing and launching the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (Forge), a new preferential trade bloc. The moves complement Washington’s Pax Silica initiative, the State Department’s flagship effort to secure AI-era supply chains among nine allied partners.
US efforts to outbid China for Africa’s minerals are a taste of what is to come this year. A pause last October in the US-China trade war saw tariffs on Beijing drop to 47 per cent, but this is a temporary truce during which both superpowers have been anything but idle. China’s one-year suspension of rare earth export controls has provided breathing room for both sides, with corporations and governments using this window to aggressively expand mineral access.
The year ahead will be marked by strategic repositioning rather than genuine peace. The accelerating competition for critical minerals – the foundation of the US’ Pax Silica and the driver of Beijing’s pursuit of resource self-sufficiency – is likely to dominate 2026’s geopolitical landscape.
Europe’s unprecedented stockpiling initiative underscores the urgency. The RESourceEU Action Plan, which launched in December, marks the first EU-coordinated stockpiling effort. The plan targets rare earth permanent magnets, battery materials and minerals where China maintains dominance.
The US and China are pursuing different approaches to mineral security, with Washington seeking to exclude China from its ecosystem through coalitions and Beijing aiming for self-sufficiency. Washington’s Pax Silica framework bets that alliance-building can offset China’s head start in mine ownership.
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