Singer Paul Okoye compares the price of a bag of cement in 2015 to 2026

Make sure you understand national economic management before you read the below. If you are all about I was buying bread at 4 Naira four years ago, now it is 8 Naira, don’t bother to read. It would never make sense to you:

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Policies are not one-way traffic. There are consequences for actions and inactions. The impact of enacting the policies vs. Maintaining Status quo is what should be considered 3 years down the line.

The common man would have been dead without subsidy removal. NNPC’s debt was at N6 trillion to oil marketers and non-remittance to FAAC had gone on for months. The last subsidy was paid from borrowed eurobonds and the FG was technically bankrupt.

The ways and means trend would have continued, and maybe we would have hit over N50trn in ways and means by year 2. Inflation and devaluation would naturally follow. States would owe salaries due to fiscal strangulation. Subnationals would have to leave off bailouts from ways and means.

Petrol won’t be available with this war. Dangote won’t play the subsidy game knowing the magnitude of NNPC’s liabilities. His ref inery is situated in an export zone and he will simply export his products. You will wake up by 3am to queue for 10 hours to buy rationed fuel at N4,000 per litre. The marketers will shun a bankrupt NNPC.

I can’t imagine our reserves without FX Unification. FX backlogs and trapped funds will continue to scare investors. Imports will dry up and further pressure will hit the black market. No FPIs, No FDIs. The Naira with printed ways and means will continue to chase a few dollar bills and there is only one consequence.

It’s primitive economics to compare 3 years ago and now, without taking into account the consequences of the inaction. Yes the reforms have been painful but we would have been in a worse situation. There was limited head room for any alternative. Policy evaluation must be conterfactual not just then vs now.

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