Upstream oil sector rebounds with $10bn new investments

Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector is witnessing a resurgence in investor confidence, with over $10bn in new investments unlocked through recent regulatory reforms, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has said.

The Commission Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this on Thursday at the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture and Energy Forum in Abuja, where key industry stakeholders gathered to examine pathways to achieving and surpassing Nigeria’s oil production targets.

The Federal Government aims to achieve a crude oil production target of three million barrels per day by 2030.

Speaking at the 26th edition of the forum themed, “Beyond the Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation,” Eyesan said the inflows reflect growing confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.

“Collectively, these projects represent over $10bn in new upstream investment, demonstrating that clear policy, firm regulation, and deliberate leadership are essential to unlocking real value and cementing Nigeria’s position as a competitive upstream destination,” she stated.

She cited three flagship projects—Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI—as practical examples of how regulatory clarity and reforms are translating into tangible investments and accelerated project execution.

According to her, the Bonga North deepwater project progressed after fiscal terms were clarified and approvals streamlined under the post-PIA framework. “The predictable environment established by the PIA and targeted Executive Orders reduced investment risk, enabling partners to finalise a multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decision,” she said.

She added that the Ubeta gas development project benefited from enhanced fiscal incentives and a transparent licensing process, which removed long-standing bottlenecks.

“The reforms addressed historical challenges and allowed the project to progress rapidly, contributing to Nigeria’s gas supply ambitions. Aligning regulation with market realities creates opportunities for both investors and the nation,” Eyesan explained.

On the HI project, she noted that improved regulatory oversight and performance-based work programmes ensured optimal asset management and sustainable value delivery. “This case highlights the importance of data-driven oversight and disciplined asset stewardship in maximising recovery and long-term benefits,” she said.

Providing a broader context, Eyesan said Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon resources, estimated at over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, had not historically translated into expected economic gains due to weak execution and policy misalignment.

“For years, investment slowed, projects stalled, costs escalated, and confidence eroded. The lesson is clear: resource endowment alone does not create value. Value is realised through effective execution driven by alignment of policy, capital, and technology,” she stated.

She noted that the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 marked a turning point, introducing a regulatory system anchored on certainty, transparency, and performance. “The commission has gazetted 19 regulations, with additional ones underway, replacing ambiguity with clarity and delays with defined timelines,” she added.

Eyesan stressed that digitalisation is now central to both regulation and operations, noting that the Commission is transitioning to a digital-first environment.

“Digital technology underpins operational excellence. We are building systems where approvals, reporting, and compliance are managed through integrated platforms, delivering speed, transparency, and real-time visibility,” she said.

She urged operators to embrace advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and real-time monitoring to improve efficiency and reduce costs. “For operators, real-time data is no longer optional. It is a competitive necessity that enables faster decisions, safer operations, and improved asset performance,” she added.

Also speaking, the Authority Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Saidu Aliyu Mohammed, said Nigeria must urgently reposition its midstream and downstream infrastructure to support the country’s ambitious production targets.

Aliyu warned that achieving three million barrels per day and scaling gas production would require massive investments in pipelines, processing facilities, and regulatory efficiency.

“Achieving the three million barrels target must go hand in hand with the Decade of Gas aspiration. We are looking at about 22 billion cubic feet of gas for both domestic and export markets,” he said.

“And achieving all this will require capacity — capacity in the way we do things, capacity in how we source funding, and capacity in how we design and implement policy frameworks.”

He noted that global energy dynamics, including supply disruptions in traditional markets, had created a strategic opportunity for Nigeria. “The changes in the global energy landscape have positioned Nigeria and Africa as a favourable and dependable destination for hydrocarbon investments. The Middle East crisis has shown clearly that the world cannot ignore Africa,” he said.

“We were at CERAWeek recently, and you could see the shift. There is now less talk about transition and more focus on energy security. That means capital is available, and Nigeria must position itself to attract it.”

Aliyu stressed that attracting large-scale investments would depend on creating a stable and predictable business environment. “Investments of the scale we need, what I call the ‘big banks,’ projects that deliver hundreds of thousands of barrels per day and billions of cubic feet of gas, will only come where there is clarity, stability, and ease of doing business,” he added.

He disclosed that the NMDPRA would soon roll out a major reform initiative, Project Nexus, aimed at transforming regulatory processes through automation and efficiency.

“Project Nexus is essentially a cultural shift. We are moving away from legacy processes to a more technology-driven system. We will automate licensing, approvals, and operations to ensure speed and transparency,” he said.

“We have also consolidated about 17 regulations into a single unified framework. This is part of our effort to simplify processes, reduce bottlenecks, and make Nigeria more competitive.”

Aliyu further raised concerns over ageing infrastructure, particularly crude oil transportation networks, calling for urgent investments in modern systems.

“We cannot continue to rely on 50-year-old trunk lines. If we are serious about three million barrels and beyond, we must rethink our pipeline infrastructure and move towards a more efficient network system,” he said. “We need a national network operator model where stakeholders come together to build and manage modern infrastructure that guarantees efficiency, quality, and volume accountability.”

In his welcome remarks, the Chairman of the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaechel, said the industry must move beyond rhetoric and begin to implement practical solutions to longstanding challenges.

“We are not gathered here just for another round of discussions. This forum is about action. The future of our industry will not be defined by what we extract from the ground, but by how intelligently we manage what we already have,” he said.

Nwaechel described the forum as a critical platform for aligning stakeholders across policy, finance, and technology to unlock new value in the sector. “We are operating in an environment where capital is more selective and competition for investment is intense. What this means is that we must become smarter, more efficient, and more deliberate in how we approach value creation,” he added.

He emphasised that the breakout sessions at the forum were designed to address real constraints, including funding gaps, regulatory bottlenecks, and slow digital adoption.

“These sessions are not routine conversations. They are structured engagements to confront the issues that have held the industry back — from policy ambiguities to capital constraints and data utilisation challenges,” he said.

“The goal is to produce actionable outcomes, not just communiqués. We want to leave here with clear steps that can influence policy, guide investment decisions, and drive operational excellence.”

Nwaechel urged stakeholders to take ownership of the reforms and work collaboratively to reposition Nigeria’s energy sector for global competitiveness. “This is a collective responsibility. Government, regulators, operators, and service providers must align their efforts. The quality of our outcomes will depend on the depth of our collaboration,” he added.

Industry stakeholders at the forum agreed that while Nigeria is beginning to see a return of investment interest, sustaining the momentum would depend on consistent policy implementation, infrastructure upgrades, and accelerated adoption of digital technologies.

The Oloibiri Lecture and Energy Forum, organised annually by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council, commemorates Nigeria’s first commercial oil discovery in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State, in 1956, and remains a key platform for shaping policy direction and innovation in the energy sector.