West Asia conflict far from over, risks rising for India: Douglas Macgregor

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a geopolitical risk advisor and former senior advisor to the US Secretary of Defense, has cautioned that the ongoing conflict in West Asia is far from over and could intensify further, with serious implications for countries like India.

For India, the risks are significant. The country depends heavily on crude oil imports from the Gulf, and disruptions are already visible. Shipping constraints, rising insurance costs, and a sharp jump in crude and jet fuel prices could feed into inflation and slow economic growth.

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He believes markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in a de-escalation. According to him, military preparations in the region continue to build, signalling that the situation could worsen before it improves.

“I would be very reluctant to assume anything at this point. I would assume that there will be more war fighting,” he said.

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Macgregor pointed out that Iran sees the conflict as existential, while Israel has shown little willingness to step back. With the US continuing to supply military support, a quick resolution appears unlikely.

He highlighted that tanker movement in the region has dropped sharply, while energy prices have surged, making imports far more expensive for India. If the conflict drags on, these pressures could intensify.

At the same time, Macgregor sees a potential diplomatic role for India. Given its balanced relationships across major global and regional powers, India could be in a better position than others to act as a mediator.

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“India has the advantage of being no one’s enemy… you have good relations with Israel… good relations with Iran,” he said.

However, he remains sceptical about any near-term breakthrough, noting that global powers may increasingly shift towards securing critical resources like oil, food, and fertilisers amid rising uncertainty.

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