World Bank downgrades Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth projection

The World Bank has downgraded its 2026 economic growth projection for Nigeria to 4.1%, a decrease from the 4.4% it projected in October 2025.

In October 2025, World Bank projected Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026 and 2027.

The bank also downgraded the projection for 2027 to 4.2 percent, while the growth forecast for 2028 was put at 4.3 percent.

In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled, ‘Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,’ the global lender said the growth forecast is driven by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment.

The bank said the services sector, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate will remain the primary engine of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly due to structural constraints.

The institution also said inflation is projected to decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further ease to 10.7 percent by 2028, reflecting the lagged impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.

“Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

“Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty.

“However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” World Bank stated.

The global lender said economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025.

According to the bank, the 2026 growth forecast for the region has been downgraded by 0.3 percentage points compared to its October 2025 projection.

“Across countries in the region, some large countries in the region have been revised downward in 2026; notably, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia.

“Overall, about 60 percent of the countries in the region (29 of 47) recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts,” the report said.

Despite the downgrade, the World Bank said economic activity across the region has been supported by improved macroeconomic stabilisation, including better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices.