World Bank retains Nigeria’s 4.1% growth forecast

The World Bank has retained its forecast of 4.1 per cent economic growth for Nigeria in 2026, despite mounting global economic uncertainties linked to rising geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.

The projection was contained in the World Bank’s 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Thursday, which also maintained Nigeria’s growth outlook at 4.2 per cent for 2027.

According to the report, the global economy is facing renewed challenges following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which has triggered higher energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures and weaker growth prospects across emerging and developing economies.

The World Bank projected global growth to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2026 from 2.9 per cent in 2025, citing weaker prospects for energy-importing countries and economies directly affected by the conflict.

“The global economy is facing another major shock. The conflict in the Middle East has triggered sharp increases in energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy,” the report stated.

Despite the challenging global environment, the World Bank said Nigeria’s economy is expected to remain on a growth path over the next two years.

The institution, however, warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, noting that prolonged disruptions to commodity supplies or a further escalation of hostilities could worsen inflation, heighten food insecurity and weaken economic growth worldwide.

It added that growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to moderate, while rising public debt continues to pose significant fiscal challenges for many countries.

The World Bank urged governments to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation, improve public spending efficiency, enhance debt management and adopt stronger fiscal institutions to build resilience against future economic shocks.

The lender also recommended credible fiscal rules, sovereign wealth funds and diversified revenue sources as critical measures for sustaining growth, creating jobs and reducing economic volatility.