Complacent West is sliding into 'inevitable' WW3, warns ex-minister

The West is sliding into World War 3 through proxy conflicts, grey-zone warfare and global fragmentation, former defence minister Tobias Ellwood has warned. Asked whether there was an inevitability about some form of international clash, Mr Ellwood told Express.co.uk: “To some degree, there is. The trajectory that we’re currently on takes us into a much darker chapter, and it isn’t just a clash between the giants, America and China.

“There are many facets to escalation – flashpoints over which nobody is in full control.” He added: “You could have a clash in space that escalates, or you could see what we’ve witnessed in the Middle East erupt. With an absence of coordination and an inability to put the fire out straight away, the ripple effect is huge.”

Mr Ellwood described a conflict unlike previous world wars: “This is not like World War II. This is not almighty battles between one side and another. It is a war of proxy conflicts and grey-zone warfare. It’s a world at war on a multitude of levels that leads to countries no longer being able to rely on each other.”

He said China withholds minerals, the Middle East withholds energy, and Western isolationism accelerates fragmentation. New alliances form around China while a “reluctant, risk-averse West, particularly Europe, remains unsure of how to handle where the world is going.”

On NATO, Mr Ellwood said the alliance failed its core purpose during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “You cannot have a re-emerging superpower invade part of Europe and have NATO do nothing about it. Essentially, that is what NATO did; they sat on their hands.”

He criticised US disengagement: “Donald Trump has turned around and said to the American people: ‘Right, they’re not following the rules, so neither are we. From now on, I’m going to look after America.’”

Mr Ellwood traced roots to post-9/11 hubris: “For me, that moment came in about 2005 when we became too arrogant.

“We assumed we had provided the answer to global prosperity and enforced democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan specifically, in ways that backfired completely. We lost the moral authority to lead the global order from a Western perspective.”

He noted adversaries like Russia and China “never bought into the system in the first place,” citing historical grievances taught daily in China.

On political turbulence undermining leadership in Britain, Mr Ellwood said: “We are now about to embark on what I think is our seventh prime minister in 10 years. That is not a promotion for our democratic system.”

In his book Ten Steps to Prevent World War 3, Mr Ellwood sets out measures to reverse the slide, from understanding enemies and spotting new battlefields to reasserting statecraft. The 2026 book warns of complacency after the Cold War and the preventable nature of the current trajectory.