Terrorism has cost Nigeria over $200bn in hidden losses — PeacePro

The Foundation for Peace Professionals, PeacePro, has estimated that Nigeria has suffered more than $200 billion in undocumented economic, social and developmental losses since the Boko Haram insurgency began in 2009.

The organisation said the estimate represented the cumulative cost of more than 15 years of conflict, including destroyed infrastructure, abandoned farmlands, disrupted education, business closures, population displacement, reduced investments and lost economic opportunities.

In a statement issued on Friday by its Executive Director, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, PeacePro called on the federal government to conduct a comprehensive national audit of the direct and indirect costs of terrorism.

The organisation said Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts had largely been assessed through the number of insurgents neutralised, weapons recovered and territories reclaimed, while the broader economic and social consequences of the conflict remained inadequately documented.

According to PeacePro, the estimated loss of more than $200 billion was a conservative policy assessment based on available data from government institutions, international financial organisations, humanitarian agencies, academic studies and independent policy analyses.

Mr Hamzat said the estimate took into account losses arising from the destruction of public infrastructure, abandoned agricultural production, collapsed businesses, disrupted supply chains, forced displacement, reduced investment, interrupted education, environmental degradation, humanitarian spending and lost economic opportunities.

He said international assessments had placed the direct economic impact of the conflict in the North-east at more than $100 billion but noted that Nigeria had yet to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the indirect national costs of the insurgency.

These costs, he said, included foregone investments, productivity losses, erosion of human capital and long-term economic opportunities.

“When these hidden costs are incorporated over more than 15 years of conflict, the cumulative national loss exceeds $200 billion,” he said.

“Nigeria has counted the number of terrorists killed, but it has never counted the true value of what terrorism has taken away from the nation.

“Every abandoned farm is an economic casualty. Every destroyed school is a development casualty. Every displaced family is a productivity casualty. Every investor discouraged by insecurity represents a lost opportunity for national growth. These are the hidden casualties of terrorism.”

PeacePro warned that the impact of terrorism was no longer limited to attacks and military operations, saying the conflict had contributed to weak economic growth, declining investor confidence, food insecurity, youth unemployment, psychological trauma, environmental degradation and the erosion of national cohesion.

The organisation said Nigeria risked recording military gains against insurgents while continuing to suffer long-term economic and social setbacks unless the government adopted a coordinated national recovery strategy.

It therefore called for the establishment of a National Recovery and Reconstruction Commission to coordinate the rebuilding of communities affected by terrorism and oversee the implementation of a National Post-Terrorism Transformation Framework.

The proposed framework, according to PeacePro, would focus on rebuilding critical infrastructure, reviving agriculture and local industries, rehabilitating and economically reintegrating internally displaced persons, expanding youth employment and implementing nationwide trauma-healing programmes.

Other components include environmental restoration, intelligence-led security reforms and community-based reconciliation initiatives.

PeacePro also renewed its proposal to transform the Sambisa Forest, once a major operational base of Boko Haram insurgents, into “Africa’s Peace City” — an international centre for peacebuilding, conflict resolution, security innovation, post-conflict research and sustainable economic development.

Mr Hamzat said transforming the forest from a symbol of terrorism into a global centre for peace would demonstrate Nigeria’s resilience and help redefine the country’s post-conflict recovery efforts.

The organisation urged the federal government, the National Assembly, state governments, development partners and the private sector to move beyond a security-focused response and adopt a broader national transformation agenda.

“The final victory over terrorism will not be measured by the number of insurgents defeated,” Mr Hamzat said.

“It will be measured by the number of communities rebuilt, children returned to school, farms restored to production, businesses reopened, displaced families resettled and hope restored to millions of Nigerians.”