Nigeria’s “Period of Renewed Stability” and the Truths the CBN Chooses to Overlook

BY BLAISE UDUNZE

On the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, just lately acknowledged that Nigeria had “turned a decisive nook,” his comment aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and meals inflation retreating to 13.12 %, the alternate fee was stabilizing, and overseas reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. Nonetheless, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting financial state of affairs challenges households, companies, and traders day by day.

Stability shouldn’t be introduced; it’s felt. For hundreds of thousands of Nigerians, nonetheless, what they’re dealing with as an alternative are growing difficulties, declining skills, diminished shopping for energy, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a gradual macroeconomic path.

The 303rd MPC gathering was essentially the most vital in latest occasions, revealing insurance policies and statements that immediate extra questions than clarifications. It highlighted an financial system striving to seem secure, in principle, whereas the precise sector struggles to breathe.

This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is predicated on a fragile and partial basis, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining financial robustness.

Manufacturing: The Core of Real Stability Stays Struggling to Survive

A powerful financial system is characterised by development in manufacturing, elevated funding, and aggressive industries. Nigeria lacks all of those parts.

The Producers Affiliation of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s option to hold the Financial Coverage Fee at 27 %. MAN acknowledged that elevated rates of interest at the moment are” hindering manufacturing, deterring funding, and weakening competitiveness.

Producers are presently taking loans at charges between 30-37 %, an setting that renders development unfeasible and survival difficult. MAN’s Director-Common, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasised that though secure alternate charges matter, no real trade can endure borrowing bills to these charged by mortgage sharks.

The CBN’s selection to take care of elevated rates of interest is predicated on drawing overseas portfolio traders (FPIs) to assist the naira’s stability. Nonetheless, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They don’t signify long-term stability. Do they signify real financial growth?

Real stability calls for assurance, in manufacturing past monetary tightening. Producers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.

Oil Output and Income: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring

Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the spine of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 price range presumed:

• $75 per barrel oil worth
• 2.06 million barrels per day manufacturing

Each goals have fallen aside. Brent crude lingers close to $62.56 underneath the benchmark. Opposite to the same old explanations, consultants attribute the decline not primarily to exterior shocks however to poor reservoir administration, outdated fashions, weak oversight, and delayed technical choices.

Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded skilled in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing manufacturing losses resulting from insufficient nicely monitoring, out of date reservoir fashions, and technical selections missing basic engineering precision.  These shortcomings consequence instantly in decreased income. By September 2025:

–       Nigeria had collected N62.15 trillion from oil income

–       as an alternative of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.

–       In September, the Federal Inland Income Service reported a startling 49.60 % deficit in income from oil taxes.

A nation falling in need of its primary income objectives by 50 % can’t assert stability. As an alternative, it’s going to take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.

A Stability Constructed on Debt, Not Productiveness

Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Financial institution’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the whole public debt quantities to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 % rise since 2023.

From July to October 2025, the federal government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. However, despite these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing stays restricted, and social welfare continues to be inadequate.

Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to development.” At the moment, the federal government spends one out of each 4 naira it earns on servicing money owed. Taking over debt shouldn’t be dangerous in itself, offered it funds initiatives that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it helps subsistence.  A rustic funding in the present day, by means of the labour of the long run, can’t assert restored stability.

The Naira: A Forex Supported by Fragile Pillars

The CBN contends that elevated rates of interest and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. Nonetheless, this steadiness is predicated on grounds that can’t endure even the slightest world disturbance. The pillars of a secure forex are:

–       Rising home manufacturing

–       Increasing exports

–       Dependable power provide

–       Robust safety

–       A thriving manufacturing base

None of those is Nigeria’s present actuality. What Nigeria really receives is capital from portfolio traders, and previous occasions (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how quickly these funds disappear.

Unemployment: “Steady” Figures Masks a Rising Youth Disaster

The CBN touts a reported unemployment fee of 4.3 %. Nonetheless, the Worldwide Labour Organisation (ILO), together with economists, cautions that the method conceals extra critical points within the labour market.

Youth joblessness has elevated to six.5 %, and the Nigerian Financial Summit Group cautions that Nigeria must generate 27 million formal employment alternatives by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour disaster. The employment disaster is a ticking time bomb. A rustic can’t keep stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.

FDI Continues to Lag Regardless of CBN’s Constructive Outlook

Throughout the 2025 Nigerian Financial Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf acknowledged that Nigeria’s efforts to draw direct funding (FDI) proceed to be sluggish regardless of the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely displays investor belief, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing crops, employment, and producing worth. Nigeria doesn’t have any of this as of now. An financial system unable to attract long-term investments lacks stability.

139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?

The latest growth report from the World Financial institution estimates that 139 million Nigerians reside in poverty, and greater than half of the inhabitants faces day by day struggles. This isn’t stability. It’s a humanitarian and financial disaster.

Meals inflation continues to remain structurally excessive. The price of a meals basket has risen 5 occasions since 2019. Low-income households at the moment allocate a lot, as 70 % of their earnings to meals. A authorities can’t declare stability when its residents go hungry.

A Fragile, Failing Energy Sector

The ability sector, one other cornerstone of financial stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are with out entry to electrical energy, which is likely one of the highest figures globally. Even houses linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electrical energy day by day. Firms allocate funds to turbines relatively than to expertise, innovation, or development. Nigeria has now emerged as the largest importer of photo voltaic panels in Africa, not resulting from environmental objectives however as a result of the nationwide energy grid is unreliable.

A rustic can’t obtain stability whether it is unable to produce electrical energy to its residences, industrial crops, or medical facilities.

Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Financial Coverage

Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant assaults persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and funding. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion annually resulting from insecurity and sources that may have fueled industrial growth.

Meals worth will increase are primarily brought on by instability, and farmers are unable to domesticate, collect, or ship their merchandise. However, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as a difficulty of coverage. In a rustic the place insecurity essentially hinders the financial system tightening coverage can’t guarantee stability.

Inflation Figures Beneath Suspicion

Questions have additionally emerged relating to the reliability of inflation knowledge. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN may not fully depend on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting growing apprehension. A pointy lower to 16 % inflation clashes with market situations.

Households are dealing with the meals prices in 20 years. Prices, for transport, housing lease, schooling charges, and obligatory gadgets hold growing. Meals costs can’t decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for security. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the steadiness story based mostly on them turns into misleading. There may be, fairly frankly, a big disconnect between governance and the lived expertise of peculiar Nigerians.

International Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Actuality

Even Nigeria’s celebrated overseas reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. Nonetheless, a better examination exhibits:

–       Web usable reserves are solely $23.11 billion

–       The rest is linked to commitments, swaps, and money owed

Gross reserves make the information. Web reserves defend the forex. The distinction is just too massive to claim that the naira is secure.

Nigeria’s Financial Contradiction: Stability on the High, Volatility on the Backside

In actuality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the precise experiences of Nigerians highlights a actuality:

–       Macroeconomic adjustments have didn’t convert into enhancements in human well-being.

–       Nigeria may seem secure formally. Its residents are experiencing instability in reality.

–       Taking over debt is growing

–       Poverty is worsening

–       Manufacturing is contracting

–       Jobs are scarce

–       Authority is breaking down

–       Emotions of insecurity are rising stronger

–       Inflation is undermining dignity

–       Firms are struggling to breathe

–       Capital is escaping

–       Distress, amongst people, is increasing

A powerful financial system is one the place development is skilled, not introduced.

What Real Stability Calls for

To maneuver from paper stability to actual stability, Nigeria should:

1. Help home manufacturing.  Reduce rates of interest for producers, scale back borrowing prices, and supply focused credit score.
2. Repair oil manufacturing technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate sources to enough technical oversight.
3. Prioritize safety. Safe farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
4. Reform the ability sector. Spend money on grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
5. Appeal to actual FDI. Streamline guidelines, improve the framework, and keep constant coverage steerage.
6. Anchor debt on productive initiatives. Take loans solely for infrastructure initiatives that produce revenue.
7. Prioritize reforms in welfare. Undertake crisis-responsive, domestically funded security nets.
8. Enhance transparency. Guarantee inflation, employment, and reserve knowledge mirror actuality.

Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved

The CBN Governor’s assertion of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It stays unproven. The inconsistencies are obvious, the statistics too. The true-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not by means of statements on coverage however by whether or not:

–       Manufacturing crops are creating (factories function at full capability),

–       Meals is inexpensive,

–       Younger folks have jobs

–       The naira is powerful with out synthetic props,

–       Electrical energy is dependable,

–       Safety is assured,

–       Poverty charges are reducing.

Except these situations are met, Nigeria shouldn’t be experiencing a interval of restored stability. As an alternative, it’s going by means of a part of restoration, one that can collapse if the precise financial system retains worsening whereas decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN should rethink its method. Nigeria wants productive stability, not statistical stability.

Blaise, a journalist and PR skilled, writes from Lagos, may be reached by way of: blaise.udunze@gmail.com