IEA says Iran war will keep the natural gas market tight for two years

The implications of the Iran war on energy markets will extend well beyond this year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday. 

The conflict in the Middle East, now in its second month, is expected to crimp global natural gas supplies for two years as damage to liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Qatar disrupts supply, the IEA predicts. 

The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. IEA head Fatih Birol on Tuesday called the disruption “the biggest crisis in history” in an interview with France Inter radio.

Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan Industrial City, a liquefied natural gas export terminal in Qatar, last month reduced its LNG capacity by 17%, Qatar’s energy minister said. It could take up to five years to repair the damage, the energy minister added.  

“Beyond the immediate disruption, the crisis is expected to have implications for the medium-term outlook. Damage to LNG liquefaction infrastructure in Qatar is set to reduce projected supply growth and delay the impact of the anticipated global LNG expansion wave by at least two years,” the IEA said in its quarterly report on Friday. 

Short-term supply losses, combined with slower capacity growth, could lead to a cumulative loss of 120 billion cubic meters of LNG supply through 2030, the agency estimates. 

“While new liquefaction projects in other regions are expected to offset these losses over time, the impact will prolong tight markets through 2026 and 2027,” IEA said in its report.

The group noted that natural gas demand fell in March, in part due to higher commodity prices and demand-side policy measures. 

“A number of Asian countries are undertaking demand-side and fuel-switching measures to reduce the use of natural gas,” IEA said. “The duration of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a key uncertainty that will affect global gas demand in 2026.”