Osun 2026: Hurdles, hopes as battle line hardens for top contenders

With the release of the final list of candidates by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the race for the Osun State governorship election has moved from speculation to full-blown political contest, setting the stage for a fierce battle ahead of the August 15 poll.

On paper, 14 political parties are in the race. In reality, however, the contest is fast shaping into a three-way duel among Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress, ADC.

Across the state’s towns and villages, permutations have begun in earnest, alliances are being tested, and old political rivalries are resurfacing, as each of the leading contenders plots a path to the Government House in Osogbo.

Adeleke’s personal appeal

For Governor Adeleke, the battle is as much about retaining power as it is about defending his political identity following his dramatic exit from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the platform on which he rose to power in 2022. Though Accord lacks the deep-rooted structure of the PDP, Adeleke appears to be banking on something far more potent – his personal appeal.

Popularly known as the “dancing governor,” his easy-going style and connection with ordinary people have continued to resonate across the grassroots. This street credibility, many believe, could again prove decisive at the polls.

Beyond personality, his administration has pushed an aggressive infrastructure drive, with road projects cutting across major towns such as Osogbo, Ede, Iwo, Ila and Ilesa. Equally significant is his standing among workers, bolstered by the clearing of salary arrears inherited from the previous administration.

Adding a modern twist to his political machinery is the influence of his nephew, music star Davido, whose popularity among young voters may quietly tilt the youth demographic in Adeleke’s favour.

Yet, beneath the surface of goodwill lie simmering concerns. Critics continue to question his failure to fulfill certain promises, particularly the regularisation of casual workers in key state agencies. Accusations of favouring his hometown, Ede, have also refused to go away, despite repeated denials by his aides.

Controversies such as the relocation of the proposed airport project from Ido-Osun to Ede have further fuelled opposition narratives, while a faction of the PDP remains unmoved by his defection, vowing to reclaim the party structure in the state.

Oyebamiji’s structure, elite support

If Adeleke’s strength lies in personality and incumbency, Oyebamiji’s advantage is rooted firmly in structure and elite backing.

The APC candidate steps into the race supported by a formidable political machine that stretches across the state’s 30 local government areas. Years of party entrenchment, combined with recent high-profile defections from the PDP, have significantly boosted the APC’s war chest.

The entry of federal lawmakers and political heavyweights into his camp has particularly strengthened the party’s standing in Osun East, while influential figures within the APC continue to rally around his candidacy.

Still, Oyebamiji’s path is not without obstacles. His association with the controversial modulated salary policy of the Aregbesola era remains a major talking point for opponents eager to frame him as part of a difficult past.

There is also the delicate task of uniting party stakeholders after a competitive primary process. How well he manages internal reconciliation could either solidify or weaken his chances.

Perhaps more crucial is his appeal to younger voters. In a political climate increasingly shaped by youth participation, Oyebamiji must work to shake off perceptions of elitism. His choice of a younger, tech-oriented running mate may help, but whether that translates into votes remains to be seen.

Salam’s experience, strategic backing

Then there is Najeem Salam, the ADC candidate, whose campaign draws strength from experience and strategic backing.

A former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Salam is no stranger to Osun politics. Known for his calm disposition and ability to build bridges, he presents himself as a unifying figure in a deeply polarised environment.

His greatest political asset, however, is the backing of former governor Rauf Aregbesola, whose influence in Osun politics remains significant despite shifting alliances.

But that support comes with its own complications.

While Aregbesola’s loyal base provides Salam with a ready-made political structure, it also revives memories of policies and challenges associated with his administration, particularly issues around state debt and education reforms.

In addition, the ADC faces a structural disadvantage, lacking the extensive grassroots machinery of the APC and the personal momentum of an incumbent governor like Adeleke. For Salam, the task ahead is not just to compete, but to break through entrenched political networks across the state.

As campaigns gather momentum, the Osun governorship race is shaping up to be a test of three different political strengths – incumbency and charisma, structure and elite influence, and grassroots legacy.

In the end, the electorate will decide which of these paths leads to power.

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