Why Atiku Abubakar will never be president (1), by Ochereome Nnanna

Former Vice President and Waziri of Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar, will never be President of Nigeria, unless some unforeseen miracle happens. Having tracked his political odyssey as a reporter and columnist since his 1992 debut under the tutelage of the late Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua’s People’s Democratic Movement, PDM, I have isolated two terminal character flaws that have stood between him and the ultimate prize: blind opportunism and a reckless sense of self-entitlement.

Let’s dissect the entitlement first. Last week, I critiqued Northern leaders for this specific malaise—a psychological glitch that renders the North an existential threat not only to itself but also to the rest of us. It is an “Arewa disease” particularly virulent among certain Fulani elements who operate under the delusion that Nigeria is their ancestral patrimony. In their worldview, they must either hold the reins of the presidency or possess a puppet who dances to their tune; failing that, they are prepared to foment chaos to reclaim “their” power.

Atiku was forged in the PDM furnace, an organisation that functioned less like a political party and more like a close-knit, keenly discipled Machiavellian political cult. When you hear President Bola Tinubu—himself a “first-class graduate” of the PDM school—quip: “snatch it, grab it, and run away with it,” he is merely summarising the Shehu Yar’Adua mafia doctrine. However, Tinubu possesses two qualities that Yar’Adua and Atiku lacked: a bottomless reservoir of patience and cold, visionary, very deftly implemented strategy for state capture. The undoing of both Yar’Adua and Atiku was the “killer disease” of entitlement. They treated the presidency as a pre-ordained inheritance, viewing the rest of the power players and voters as mere extras in their personal epic. This arrogance, ultimately, led to the General’s untimely and almost uneventful eclipse.

Yar’Adua was ensnared in General Ibrahim Babangida’s 1992 disqualification of 23 aspirants. Undeterred, he viewed Gen. Sani Abacha’s 1994 National Constitutional Conference as a fresh theatre for his ambition. He arrived as a Delegate, surrounded by his PDM “disciples,” intent on hijacking the proceedings. This hubris sparked a fatal collision with Abacha. When Yar’Adua sponsored a motion demanding the military exit by January 1, 1996, Abacha—with his own long-nursed, iron-clad political ambitions—read it as a Fulani prince trying to shove him, a Kanuri “commoner”, off the stage.

Abacha’s retaliation was swift and savage. Yar’Adua was hustled to Enugu Prisons, and from there to Abakaliki Prisons, where he died mysteriously in November 1997, reportedly via lethal injections. Meanwhile, Abacha played the ultimate power move: he co-opted Yar’Adua’s own confidant and “fixer”, Chief Tony Anenih, to read a motion at the Conference, cancelling the military quit notice and telling them to only go when they liked. Abacha’s subsequent deposition of Sultan Ibrahim Dasuki in 1996 was the final exclamation point, a brutal demonstration that the “Caliphate’s invincibility” was a myth easily shattered by the supremacy of Aso Rock.

The irony of the Shehu Yar’Adua saga ripened exactly ten years later. While the General had fought like a possessed buccaneer and failed, the presidency was eventually handed to his younger, humbler, less ambitious brother, Umaru, on a silver platter. Umaru, having finished his two tenures as Governor of Katsina State, wanted nothing more than to return to a quiet life as a Chemistry teacher. Yet, the throne he never chased fell into his lap, courtesy of outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo. Contrast this with Atiku, who has spent a record seven cycles (1993, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023) desperately chasing a ghost that remains just out of his reach.

Unfortunately, the gravity of the Yar’Adua lesson was lost on Atiku. In 1999, he was the Governor-elect of Adamawa State when Obasanjo plucked him as his Vice President, largely to appease the PDM machinery. By 2003, instead of biding his time, Atiku’s entitlement flared. He began aggressively pushing the “Mandela Option” to force Obasanjo out after one term. Obasanjo, a man who does not take kindly to being hurried to his political grave, responded by systematically dismantling Atiku’s influence and purging him and his loyalists from the PDP.

After a brief, opportunistic flirtation with Tinubu in the opposition, Atiku scurried back to the PDP in 2011, marketing himself to Northern elders as the only “strongman” capable of snatching power from Goodluck Jonathan. He was crowned the “Northern Consensus Candidate,” only to be humiliated by Jonathan at the PDP presidential primaries, losing 2,736 to 805. The lesson was stark: no matter how much “Arewa consensus” you carry, no one can conquer Nigeria’s democratic map without building genuine, humble bridges across the Niger and Benue. This is a truth validated by the eventual successes of Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu—both of whom had to learn the practical lesson that North and South are equal partners in the Nigerian project.

The myth of Northern entitlement is just that—a myth. Nigeria is not a patrimony. You can sweep the millions of votes in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna, but without the “widow’s mite” votes from Ekiti, Ebonyi, or Cross River, the constitutional requirement remains a locked door. That was why the cobblers of the 1999 Constitution and other military-created constitutional documents made sure that despite whatever demographic and geopolitical advantages a candidate may have, he must get the approval of Nigerians across the divides to pack into Aso Villa as president. Other ingredients like North and South power rotation and the Federal Character principle were enshrined as further confirmations that Nigeria belongs equally to all Nigerians. We are in security crisis because of their violations.

Atiku’s political tragedy is the belief that the presidency is a debt the country owes him. Next week, we shall explore how his “naked opportunism” has served as the second bolt on that door, ensuring he remains the president Nigeria will never have.