US seeks Chinese rare earth guarantees to fuel American drone dominance

The U.S. has banned Chinese drones over national security concerns, but American-made drones depend on rare earth minerals and magnets that China controls — creating a supply chain contradiction at the heart of U.S. military ambitions.

Drones have transformed modern warfare. In Ukraine, a $300 quadcopter with a camera and an explosive zip-tied to it has become the defining weapon in Kyiv’s war with Russia. One Ukrainian expert recently credited those drones for 70-80% of Russian battlefield casualties.

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Now, the U.S. military is racing to expand its drone arsenal. Scripps News has reported on special forces training with new American-made drones. The Pentagon ordered 10,000 of them in 2025 alone — but that’s a relatively small number, because manufacturing them requires rare earth metals and magnets that China controls.

China produces 90% of the world’s supply of both the metals and the magnets. The U.S. wants China to guarantee long-term export licenses for the rare earth magnets that American factories currently cannot source from anywhere else. It’s a prerequisite for fulfilling President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to establish American drone dominance.

David Hathaway, Principal for China at The Asia Group, said the scale of the challenge is enormous.

“If we were to reshore into the United States all of our production of those magnets, that’s a moonshot-level investment, and we’re clearly not there,” Hathaway said.

“So we’re still gonna have to rely on China for probably a considerable amount of time,” he added.

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In return for the continued flow of minerals and magnets into the U.S., Washington is quietly offering to extend waivers on its own ban on Chinese consumer drones — keeping the very components the U.S. sought to eradicate legal.

With U.S. drone supply chain independence still years away, the Trump administration has taken stakes in U.S. critical mineral mining companies and guaranteed a 10-year price floor for American processed minerals. It’s essentially a government bet that domestic production can scale up if Washington can manage to buy time from China.