Elon Musk claims Africa deaths fell after US aid cuts

Tech billionaire Elon Musk claimed Tuesday that deaths across Africa have decreased following sharp US cuts to foreign aid funding, attributing the trend to the end of programmes that allegedly fueled instability.

The SpaceX CEO made the claim in response to criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiatives, which Musk has supported, that significantly reduced funding for the US Agency for International Development.

According to Refugees International, US humanitarian funding fell from $14 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, with the organisation describing the closure of USAID as the “most prominent manifestation” of a broader decline in international humanitarian assistance.

The Center for Global Development also reported that USAID spending declined by about 58 per cent in 2025 compared with 2024.

However, health experts and aid organisations have warned that the funding reductions could have severe humanitarian consequences.

A study published in The Lancet in July 2025 projected that the cuts could contribute to more than 14 million deaths globally by 2030, including over 4.5 million children.

Similarly, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, citing estimates from the Center for Global Development, wrote last year that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year without U.S. support for HIV prevention and treatment.

But in a post on X, Musk shared a 2025 mortality data from several African countries showing no detectable rise in deaths after the funding reductions.

“Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!” he wrote, quoting an analysis that highlighted South African all-cause death statistics.

The data referenced includes a graph of weekly deaths in South Africa from January 2023 to May 2026, marking the period after USAID/PEPFAR cuts.

Observed excess deaths were reported near zero, falling below pre-cut projections.

Accompanying analysis cited studies questioning the broader health impacts of foreign aid, including a 2019 paper finding minimal statistical links between aid levels and improvements in life expectancy or mortality rates in developing nations.

Musk has repeatedly defended the aid reductions as necessary to eliminate waste, corruption, and misuse of taxpayer dollars for political purposes rather than pure humanitarian efforts.

He argued that prior USAID activities in the region contributed to violent revolutions aimed at installing leftist regimes, and that halting such funding removed a source of conflict.