Lake Chad crisis nears dangerous tipping point, UNHCR warns

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has raised alarm over worsening insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin, warning that escalating violence and rising displacement are threatening to reverse years of fragile stability in the region.

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva on Friday, the UNHCR Deputy Director for the West and Central Africa Bureau, Andrew Wyllie, said the humanitarian situation had deteriorated significantly across the Lake Chad Basin, which spans parts of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria.

According to the UNHCR, more than 3.5 million people are currently forcibly displaced across the basin, while 8.2 million require humanitarian assistance.

The agency said security incidents increased by 80 per cent between January 2024 and April 2026.

The agency disclosed that between September 2025 and May 2026, nearly 1,800 security incidents and more than 5,700 fatalities were recorded, including attacks on civilians, killings, kidnappings, explosions, clashes between armed groups and raids on villages.

The UNHCR identified Borno State in northeastern Nigeria as the epicentre of the crisis, saying repeated attacks by non-state armed groups, military operations and growing insecurity along roads and displacement routes continue to force families from their homes while limiting humanitarian access.

It noted that the effects of the conflict have spread beyond the North-East, with insecurity and displacement increasingly affecting the North-West and parts of the Middle Belt.

The agency said that since January 2026, more than 77,500 people have been displaced across the four countries, including over 16,000 refugees who fled attacks in northeastern Nigeria to Niger’s Diffa region, where humanitarian partners are providing emergency assistance.

The UNHCR warned that violence is increasingly crossing national borders, with attacks in one country triggering displacement in neighbouring states.

It said persistent attacks continue to fuel insecurity in Cameroon’s Far North, while recurrent attacks and military operations in Chad’s Lac Province have displaced about 60,000 people, prompting authorities to declare a state of emergency in May.

The agency expressed concern that civilians are bearing the greatest burden of the conflict, noting that recent protection monitoring found that one in five households no longer feels safe in its own community.

Women and girls, it said, face increasing risks of violence while specialised protection services remain critically overstretched.

The UNHCR added that the number of people who know survivors of violence has risen to 27 per cent in 2026 from 19 per cent in 2025, reflecting a worsening protection environment despite widespread underreporting.

Children have also been severely affected, with about half of those living in the hardest-hit areas out of school. In Chad’s Lac Province, the figure exceeds 78 per cent.

The agency further reported that one in four people surveyed said there were separated or unaccompanied children in their communities, rising to one in three in Cameroon’s Far North.

Wyllie commended governments across the region for keeping their borders open to people fleeing violence and for supporting displaced communities.

He said, “UNHCR is working with them across all four countries to assist people fleeing violence, monitor risks, support new arrivals and ensure families can access documentation, assistance, and, where conditions allow, pathways to return, reintegration and recovery.”

The agency, however, warned that humanitarian operations are struggling to match the scale of growing needs.

Wyllie said, “UNHCR and partners urgently need $29 million through December 2026 to sustain operations, maintain critical protection and assistance in high-risk areas, and support government-led regional stabilisation efforts.”

He cautioned that, “Without timely and flexible support, protection gaps will widen, displacement will continue to spread across borders, and the risk of a more entrenched regional crisis will increase. The trajectory remains deeply concerning, but it is still reversible with sustained support now.”