2027: Tinubu’s aide identifies ‘arithmetic flaw’ in Atiku’s petrol subsidy plan

Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, has identified what he described as an ‘arithmetic flaw’ in former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s plan to restore petrol subsidy if elected president in 2027.

Dare described the proposal as an “economic safari”, arguing that selling crude oil to local refineries at preferential prices could create fiscal, market and smuggling challenges.

The presidential aide stated this on Wednesday in a post on X titled, “The Arithmetic Flaw in Subsidizing the Barrel.”

Dare said Atiku’s proposal to supply crude to domestic refiners below market value would reduce the revenue available to the three tiers of government.

“Who Pays the Bill? Selling federation crude below market price creates an immediate fiscal hole in the Federation Account, directly slashing allocations to federal, state, and local governments for schools, hospitals, and security,” he said.

He also warned that preferential crude pricing could distort competition in the downstream petroleum sector.

According to Dare, such an arrangement could “risk creating artificial monopolies, destabilising smaller indigenous modular refiners” and conflict with the deregulatory provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

The presidential aide further raised concerns about a possible return of fuel smuggling if subsidised petrol is sold significantly cheaper in Nigeria than in neighbouring countries.

“Any regime that creates a wide gap between Nigerian pump prices and neighboring West African markets guarantees a return of cross-border fuel arbitrage, no matter how many ‘auditors’ are promised,” he said.

Dare concluded his criticism by likening Atiku’s proposal to treating the symptoms rather than the underlying problem.

“This idea is an economic safari. Applying painkillers to a festering wound,” he said.

His comments followed Atiku’s renewed insistence that he would restore petrol subsidy if elected president in 2027.

The former vice-president had earlier responded to comments by his media aide, Paul Ibe, who said Atiku would restore subsidy temporarily before gradually phasing it out.

Atiku subsequently clarified his position, saying Ibe had contradicted his policy statement.

In a statement posted on X, Atiku said, “On the question of subsidy, my position has not changed and will not change: I will restore it!”

He argued that Nigeria had sufficient resources to cushion citizens from economic hardship, adding: “A nation as blessed as ours has no business abandoning its citizens to hardship. Nigeria is rich enough to look after her own.”