WW3 warning as Russia ‘considering strikes’ against NATO country

Russia appears to be laying the groundwork for future provocations against NATO, a US think tank has warned. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based research organisation that has closely monitored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since 2022, said the new intelligence reports are consistent with a long-running campaign to test the alliance’s resolve.

It comes as US intelligence has warned that Russia could be preparing an armed “provocation” on Polish territory in an apparent attempt to test NATO’s response, raising fears of a wider European conflict. According to Polish news website Onet, Washington has issued multiple alerts about possible strikes on critical infrastructure using missiles or drones, or even a limited ground incursion involving Russian or Belarusian forces.

The latest intelligence closely mirrors the ISW’s previous assessments. The institute has repeatedly argued that Russia’s activities around NATO’s borders – including drone incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare and airspace violations – should not be viewed as isolated incidents but as part of a broader “Phase Zero” strategy designed to shape the battlefield before any direct confrontation.

In its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, the institute said: “These reported US and European warnings are consistent with ISW’s long-term assessment that Russian operations such as drone and other aerial incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare (EW) interference, and overflights are part of Russia’s Phase Zero campaign.”

The report added: “These Phase Zero operations aim to set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO. Though Polish sources offered possible scenarios to Onet, the nature, timing, and other details of a potential Russian operation against NATO’s eastern flank are unclear at this time.”

It is feared that an attack on NATO from Moscow could trigger WW3 as the organisation’s Article 5 agreement states that “an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all”.

The warnings come amid the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply falling in late June, after weeks of steady decline. Despite the increasingly negative perceptions from the Russian public, Putin has continued Moscow’s heavy attacks against Ukraine.

On Thursday, a ferocious Russian attack on Kyiv killed at least 30 people, making it the third deadliest assault against the Ukrainian capital since the start of the war.