Tinubu’s biggest opponent is not Obi or Atiku, …but Tinubu, by Moses Braimah

“A government that spends more time explaining the opposition than explaining its achievements may already know where its real problem lies.”

Nigeria is a fascinating country. Explain it to someone and watch them nod eagerly, only for them to confess moments later: “I still don’t understand.” If you claim to fully grasp Nigeria, you are either a genius or nobody explained it properly.

Take our politics.  

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sits in Aso Rock with every lever of power firmly in hand: constitutional authority, federal machinery, a ruling party that controls the National Assembly, the loyalty of most governors, ministerial appointments, security agencies, and the full weight of incumbency. He has time, plenty of it, before 2027.

Yet somehow, Peter Obi still haunts the dreams of many in the corridors of power. How?  

Even if we accept the official narrative without question: INEC declared Tinubu winner, the judiciary affirmed it, case closed – the reality remains: Obi came third, Atiku second. Simple arithmetic.  

So why does every political conversation treat Peter Obi like the man in Aso Rock and Tinubu like the opposition candidate campaigning from the streets? Something is seriously off balance.

President Tinubu, please note. The real opposition lives in the narket. Tinubu’s greatest political opponent is not Peter Obi.  It is not Atiku Abubakar.

It is not social media, the NDC Party, or the ADC. It is the ordinary Nigerian, the woman haggling for tomatoes and rice in the market, the father staring at fuel prices and school fees every single morning. 

That voter is the real opposition. You cannot arrest her. You cannot suspend him. You cannot drown that frustration in press releases.  

The electorate has a simple, unforgiving logic: when happy, they reward. When hurting, they look elsewhere. Politics is not more complicated than that.

Please don’t forget, talk is cheap. But Nigerians want evidence. 

Nigerians have perfected two arts: listening carefully, and comparing what they hear with what they feel in their pockets and bellies. 

The government speaks of reforms. The people speak of hardship. The government talks of laying foundations. The people ask: “Foundations for how long?” The government preaches patience. The people reply: “Na patience we don dey chop since 1999?”  

Nobody denies that fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms were economically inevitable. Many experts agree. But economic theory does not fill plates or pay bills. Economists celebrate policy. Citizens celebrate results. No one cooks textbooks for dinner.

One interesting thing is that the Tinubu Propaganda Department is working overtime. Listen to some government defenders and you’ll be entertained. Instead of showcasing tangible improvements in living standards, they expend enormous energy attacking Obi, Atiku, or whoever is trending.  

One wonders: if the report card is that impressive, why spend the entire PTA meeting discussing another student’s failures? Show us your results. Instead, the propaganda machine runs non-stop. Every criticism is labelled “political.” Every complaint is “sponsored.” Every protest is “opposition.” Every dissenting economist is “anti-government.” Every uncomfortable headline is a “conspiracy.”  

Even a generator deserves time to rest.

The big question, who exactly is Tinubu afraid of? The President commands: The power of incumbency, Federal resources, Over 30 aligned governors, National Assembly, Strategic appointments, Security agencies, and Nationwide party structures. 

Add the vocal defenders: Bayo Onanuga, Daniel Bwala, Seyi Tinubu, Godswill Akpabio, Reno Omokri, Femi Fani-Kayode, Chief Priest, MC Oluomo, the Iyaloja network, political influencers, media allies, strategists, content creators, and even that your uncle quarrelling on WhatsApp every morning.  

Yet everyone behaves as if one man with a microphone somewhere is about to topple the government. Why?

Now listen and listen very carefully. The mirror is the real opposition  

Perhaps the government is staring in the wrong direction. Peter Obi and Atiku are not the threat. Their supporters can rally, grant interviews, trend hashtags, and make videos, that is democracy. But none of them will decide Tinubu’s fate in 2027.  

The real deciders are the trader in Ariaria, the mechanic in Kaduna, the teacher in Osogbo, the banker in Lagos, the farmer in Benue, the civil servant in Enugu, the unemployed graduate in Kano.  

When these people begin to say: “Yes, life is genuinely getting better,” the campaign is already won. Until then, every billboard is mere decoration.