Nigeria to refine all crude locally by 2030 – NMDPRA

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says Nigeria plans to allocate all of its crude oil production to the domestic market by 2030 as local refining capacity expands.

According to a report by S&P Global, Nigeria produced 1.74 million barrels of crude oil per day in June and plans to increase production to 3 million barrels per day by 2030. Nigeria has historically exported most of its crude oil to refiners in Europe and Asia. However, the country is increasingly focusing on expanding its domestic refining capacity to strengthen energy security and boost national revenue.

The NMDPRA told the publication that Nigeria’s current domestic refining capacity stands at about 1.12 million barrels per day. The authority said it has also engaged the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to enforce legal provisions requiring local producers to supply crude oil to domestic refineries.

Rabiu Umar, NMDPRA chief executive officer (CEO), said the Dangote refinery is helping to increase Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity, particularly with its plan to double its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. Umar said the authority is working to address crude oil supply shortages faced by local refineries and ensure compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

“The Federal Government wishes to end the pattern where much of the country’s crude [volumes] are exported and refined products imported,” Umar said. “We are engaging the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to ensure that every molecule of our 3 million b/d that we hope to achieve in the coming years is refined locally.”

According to NUPRC data published on August 10, Nigerian crude producers supplied 53.7 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refineries in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026. Of that volume, 52.6 million barrels were supplied to the Dangote refinery. The upstream regulator said the Dangote refinery had been offered a higher volume of 68.1 million barrels, which would have fully met its crude oil requirements.

According to the S&P Global report, the Dangote refinery, which supplies as much as 90 percent of Nigeria’s refined petroleum products, has previously said that securing sufficient and reliable crude oil supplies remains a challenge. As a result, the refinery has sought crude oil from international sources to support its operations and expansion.

S&P Global said the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) was originally expected to supply most of the refinery’s crude. However, its ability to do so was restricted following the refinery’s launch in 2024 because of the company’s forward-selling commitments.

The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which came into effect in 2021, empowers the NUPRC to impose Domestic Crude Supply Obligations on upstream operators and licensees. The law also allows the regulator to require a specified percentage of crude oil and condensate production to be allocated for domestic sale.

A spokesperson for the NUPRC confirmed to Platts, S&P Global Energy’s pricing and news division, that discussions were ongoing with relevant government agencies over enforcement of the provision. “We have been holding meetings involving the NMDPRA, Ministry of Finance, and crude suppliers on the enforcement of this provision of the law,” the NUPRC spokesperson said.

In May, the NUPRC said upstream producers offered 68.7 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refiners in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 but ultimately supplied less than half of that volume. The commission attributed the gap between the crude volumes offered and those actually delivered to differences in pricing between producers and domestic refiners.