Backstory of Osun poll, and what’s next for Adeleke, by Azu Ishiekwene

The money that politicians didn’t spend in Osun during the August 15 governorship election was the money they didn’t have and couldn’t steal. All kinds of figures have been bandied about, in hundreds of millions and billions. It’s difficult to say if these are over- or underestimations. But damn, it was some cash!

Credible sources suggest that the main opposition, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), may have spent nearly N40 billion (Davido told News Central it was N110 billion), mainly through contributions from the 20 governors and at least 50 members of the National Assembly, who descended on the state for four days.

Shelling out the money

The Accord Party and its supporters were also determined not to be outspent. Apart from matching APC’s offer of N50,000 per willing voter, two sources told me that Afrobeats icon Davido (projected by Forbes to earn about $20 million in 2023 alone from royalties, tours, and endorsements) allegedly supported his uncle directly with N10 billion. 

For every social media video of voters singing triumphantly about rejecting money from one group or the other, there were hundreds of equally enthusiastic people up and down the state, from Osogbo to Ede and from Ejigbo to Ilesa and Ife, who collected their share silently and looked on. 

For a state that gets an average of N20.4 billion monthly from its mainstay, the Federation account, and one that is also famously the South West’s capital of contented civil servants, it’s a surprise that the local economy has not yet drowned in the deluge of money. 

Apart from the role of money in Saturday’s poll in Osun, I’ve also been curious to know the role of civil servants, the backbone of government; the impact of the defectors and/or withdrawal of support by leading Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members in Osun; and why reelected Governor Ademola Adeleke insists on backing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for reelection in January 2027 general election.

Not exactly saintly 

Osun civil service is not as pristine – or if you like, innocent – as it’s often presented in the common folklore. Sure, there are exceptions. But the ups and downs the system has endured since 1999 have damaged it far more than the public imagination is willing to admit. The scar, which is a growing malignancy, was visible on Saturday.

Under Governor Bisi Akande, between 1999 and 2003, the government sacked at least 3,000 civil servants, sparking deep resentment amongst the unions. That experience was largely responsible for the swing from the “progressive” Alliance for Democracy to the PDP in 2003. 

Then came Governors Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola of the APC, whose austerity measures included paying civil servants half salaries irregularly and defaulting for months on paying pensions and gratuity. 

Whatever these governors’ intentions were, and regardless of any excuses they may have had, this adversity pushed civil servants to the brink of temptation. They overcame mainly by yielding. Traumatised, they not only rejected Governor Oyetola after his first term in 2022 and embraced Adeleke, but also resorted to foul means to fend for themselves. 

In other words, the Osun civil service has become part of the state’s larger problem. Yet many mistake this emerging demon for militancy and freedom, which it is not. 

Rub my back…

Multiple sources told me last week that what came across in the governorship poll as a ringing endorsement of Adeleke, especially by civil servants, was actually a defence of group self-interest under a government unwilling or incapable of curbing corruption in the civil service. 

“It was a game of rub-my-back-and-I-rub-yours,” a source said, “by a governor desperate for reelection and civil servants desperate to enjoy their booming ungoverned side hustle.” Is this civil service still fit for purpose? What will happen after Adeleke is blowing in the wind. 

Backfire 

Why did the opposition collapse? How did what looked like a formidable group, comprising Hon. Oluwole Oke (APC Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency), defector-in-sham Senator Francis Fadahunsi, the Olagunsoye Oyinlola-led PDP, and the Governor Hope Uzodimma horde that promised to bring Adeleke’s head on a platter to the President, disappear in the dead of night?

Possibly three things happened. Oyetola overplayed his hand of presidential proximity when team play and prudence were required. The result was that he and the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, ended up in the hole dug for Adeleke. 

But that overreach was not a peculiarly Oyetola malaise. The bug also spread to the Edo State Governor, Monday Okpebholo, whose insults not a few Osun voters took personal. They repaid him with an unsolicited display of his adorable school certificate result on social media, plus a wee-hour one-way ticket out of Osogbo.

Second, there was infighting, too; partly as a result of Oyetola’s overbearing role, and partly borne out of suspicion by long-standing APC members that the Fadahunsis and other late joiners had only come to cash out. 

And third, like I wrote last week, the cumulative effect of the longstanding disenchantment with the APC in Osun, not to mention the malicious loyalty of APC chieftain, Iyiola Omisore, gave Adeleke the harvest he badly needed. 

Adeleke in Tinubu’s corner

Why does Adeleke insist on supporting Tinubu, despite opposition by many of his supporters, including his nephew, Davido, who cite the governor’s raw deal at the hands of the APC? It’s a matter of strategic loyalty. Osun has 12 seats in the National Assembly, out of which the Accord Party currently controls seven. 

If Adeleke were to defect to the APC now, he would be risking his advantage. The trade-off of party seats for 2027 might disfavour him or weaken his bargaining power. Carrying the momentum into next year, however, would likely strengthen his hold of National Assembly seats from the current seven to perhaps nine or more, and also secure a comfortable majority in the state assembly.