Nigeria on track to become $1tn economy by 2030 – FG

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.

The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement issued on Tuesday, September 1, in Abuja, saying the latest performance showed that the economy was experiencing sustained growth, with expansion becoming increasingly broad-based across different sectors. The figures also lifted real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16 per cent, compared with 3.68 per cent in the same period of 2025.

“The strong Q2 2026 outturn lifted real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16 per cent, up from 3.68 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025, a clear signal of sustained strengthening across the economy,” the ministry said. The government said the improvement was becoming more widespread across the economy, with 27 economic subsectors recording real growth of more than three per cent in the second quarter, compared with 23 subsectors in Q2 2025.

“Growth is also becoming more broad-based. In Q2 2026, 27 economic subsectors recorded real growth above 3.0 per cent, up from 23 subsectors in Q2 2025, showing that expansion is no longer concentrated in a handful of industries,” the ministry said.

The productive sectors recorded stronger performances during the quarter. Manufacturing expanded by 3.24 per cent, more than double the 1.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, while agriculture grew by 4.39 per cent compared with 2.82 per cent a year earlier. Services, the largest driver of economic growth, also accelerated to 4.60 per cent from 3.94 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

“The productive sectors led the way. Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent, more than double the 1.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, reflecting improved industrial output. Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent, up from 2.82 per cent, underscoring stronger production and value-chain performance. Services, the largest driver of growth, expanded by 4.60 per cent, up from 3.94 per cent,” the ministry said.

The oil sector also recorded a stronger performance during the quarter, with average crude oil production rising to 1.72 million barrels per day from 1.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter. The sector grew by 7.31 per cent year-on-year, while the non-oil sector expanded by 4.31 per cent and continued to dominate the economy, accounting for 95.84 per cent of real GDP.

The ministry also attributed part of the improvement in the economy’s dollar value to the relative stability and appreciation of the naira during the period under review. It said the currency appreciated by more than 12 per cent between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, contributing to an estimated 17 per cent expansion of the economy in US-dollar terms.

According to the ministry, maintaining the current momentum alongside the government’s social programmes could strengthen dollar incomes, improve purchasing power and help reduce poverty. “Given this momentum, Nigeria is well positioned to consolidate its standing among Africa’s largest economies and to advance toward the Government’s target of a USD 1 trillion economy by 2030,” it said.

The ministry further said the International Monetary Fund had ranked Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026, projecting that the country would account for approximately 1.5 per cent of global growth during the year.

It said continued macroeconomic stability, sustained growth in productive sectors and improved investor confidence could further accelerate Nigeria’s economic expansion and position the country to become Africa’s largest economy by 2028.

“Continued macroeconomic stability, sustained growth across productive sectors, and improving investor confidence would accelerate Nigeria’s progression toward becoming Africa’s largest economy by 2028,” the ministry said. The government, however, stressed that policy consistency and continued implementation of reforms would be necessary to sustain the growth trajectory and ensure that the benefits of economic expansion reach ordinary Nigerians.

“These results underscore the importance of sustaining our reforms and ensuring policy consistency as their benefits begin to reach households across the country,” the ministry said. “The Government remains focused on accelerating inclusive growth and translating these macroeconomic gains into shared prosperity for every Nigerian family.”